The [Export Control (Military and Dual-Use Lists) (Amendment) Regulations 2023](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2023/302/introduction/made) of the US Export Control Laws went effective on the 31st of March.

These new regulations will amend the following:

- Schedules 2 and 3 of the 2008 Order or the Export Control Order 2008
- Annex I of the retained Council Regulation (EC) No 428/2009 of May 5, 2009

The amendments depict the transformation of the UK’s international export control commitment and aim to rectify the minuscule drafting errors and preferences. These amendments will result in the creation of a Community regime regulating the trading (export, transfer, broker, transit) of dual-use articles (Recast).

The following are the fundamental changes:
- An amendment to implement the changes to the Wassenaar Arrangement munitions list as decided in December 2022.
- Amendments to the Annexure I of the retained Dual-Use Regulations. These regulations list down the dual-use items, technology, and software subject to export controls. The amendments also implement changes to the- 1) dual-use list under Wassenaar Agreement and 2) controls lists under the multilateral export control regimes like Missile Technology Control Regime and Australia Group as decided in December 2021.

With the rolling out of such amendments, exporting from the US becomes more challenging and complicated. To stay updated with all such regulatory changes, Trademo Compliance can help you.

The Export Control (Military and Dual-Use Lists) (Amendment) Regulations 2023 of the US Export Control Laws go live.

UK Export Control Law Amendment Goes Effective | Trademo Insights

Trademo Compliance helps businesses participating in global supply chains meet import-export compliance norms, calculate landed costs, and harmonize product catalogs.

UK Export Control Law Amendment Goes Effective

The US Cosmetics Industry has witnessed significant growth in recent years with respect to the HS Code 3304. In the last three years alone, the overall imports of this industry grew by around 41%, reaching a value of $6.36 billion in 2022. China, France, Canada, Italy, and South Korea are the top five players in this trade.


![Trade Insight Image](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1679035927/website/Trade%20Reports/March-2023-Revamp/image_4_stkaan.png)


While the overall imports of the industry have been increasing over the past five years, there has been a significant shift in the share of exports by different countries. For instance, China’s share of exports of HS Code 3304 fell from 18.5% to 10.5%, and the trade value decreased by 35% from 2018 to 2022. Meanwhile, South Korea witnessed exceptional growth in the market, with a 67% increase in exports from $526.85 million in 2018 to $884 million in 2022.

Within this particular HS code, there are primarily three subcategories: 330410 (lip makeup), 330420 (eye makeup), and 330499 (skincare).

_The eye makeup industry, which falls under HS Code 330420, is displaying shifting trends. While China used to lead the imports in this industry with approximately a 20% share of the total imports, it was dethroned by Italy in 2022, which surpassed China’s 17% share of the total imports with a 19.5% share. South Korea also witnessed exceptional growth in this market, with its value of imports increasing from $89.06 million in 2020 to $142.59 million._

![Trade Insight Image](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1679035927/website/Trade%20Reports/March-2023-Revamp/image-2_dsyaxv.png)

These trends indicate that the cosmetics industry in the US is evolving rapidly, and businesses involved in this industry need to stay informed about the shifts in imports and adapt to the current trends. Companies anticipating and responding to these changes are more likely to thrive in this highly competitive industry. In conclusion, the cosmetics industry in the US is expected to continue its growth trajectory, presenting numerous opportunities for businesses that can navigate the changing landscape successfully. To get such data for a great kickstart to your business, check out Trademo Intel.



The dramatic rise of foreign players in the US cosmetics market is an interesting trend. Read to know more about the developments.

The Changing Face of US Cosmetics Industry | Trademo Insights

With Trademo Intel, you can study & analyze global shipping data, find new trade opportunities for your business, and data-driven insights to optimize your supply chains.

Changing Face of the US Cosmetics Industry: An Overview


To increase the Swiss market’s exposure to international trade, the Federal Council has decided to lift the industrial tariffs. The changes will be effective from 1 January 2024.

The initiative was taken as a part of import facilitation measures introduced by the Federal Council in 2017 followed by the Parliament passing required amendments to the Customs Tariff Act in October 2021.

There’s more. The Swiss customs tariff structure for industrial products will be streamlined and the administrative procedures for importing will be simplified too.

So, what will change?

_According to the Swiss Customs tariff classification, all goods except agricultural products are industrial products. Therefore, **the items covered under Chapters 25-97 except Chapters 35 and 38 concerning agricultural items will be impacted by the abolition of industrial tariffs.**_

_There will be changes in the current Swiss working tariff Tares. **The currently applicable highly detailed breakdown for determining differentiated customs duties will no longer be required**. The FOCBS or the Federal Office for Customs and Border Security will make the updated data available._

_The customs clearance process for imports will remain the same, though. Businesses will be required to ensure effective declaration of imports including proper tariff numbers for goods._

_Producing the certificate for preferential origin for importing industrial goods will no longer be required unless the goods are to be processed or exported further._

With this move, Switzerland is set to reinvigorate its position in the global supply chains, boost trade ties, bring down its production cost, and appease end consumers. Businesses must, thus, ensure necessary operational and administrative preparedness for the changes underway. With Trademo Compliance, checking the tariff rates and classifying industrial goods is faster and more effective than ever.

To increase the Swiss market&#8217;s exposure to international trade, the Federal Council has decided to lift the industrial tariffs. The changes will be effective from 1 January 2024. The initiative was taken as a part of import facilitation measures introduced by the Federal Council in 2017 followed by the Parliament passing required amendments.

Swiss Federal Council Decides to Lift Tariffs on Industrial Products | Trademo Insights

In a new development, the US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry & Security added 6 businesses of Chinese origin to their sanctions lists.

All 6 companies have been penalized for the same reason – involvement with the PLA, the principal military force operating in China. According to external reports, all 6 companies allegedly contribute to the PLA’s aerospace programs, especially for surveillance and reconnaissance.

This ban comes just a few days after surveillance balloons of Chinese origin were spotted flying over US airspace. While China maintains that the balloon was simply recording weather events, the US alleges these balloons were used for spying, surveillance, and reconnaissance.

Under the BIS, business with the 6 companies will now be subject to a license requirement for all items under the EAR – Export Administration Regulations. In addition, the BIS will review all license applications with a high likelihood of denial for each application.

The following are the six entities added to the list – 

- Beijing Nanjiang Aerospace Technology Co. Ltd.
- China Electronics Technology Group Corporation
- Dongguan Lingkong Remote Sensing Technology Co. Ltd.
- Eagles Men Aviation Science and Technology Group Co. Ltd.
- Guangzhou Tian-Hai-Xiang Aviation Technology Co. Ltd.
- Shanxi Eagles Men Aviation Science and Technology Group Co. Ltd.

It is likely that in the coming weeks, more entities will be added to the BIS list. To protect your business from a potential violation, you should keep a close eye on such sanctions lists. You can track the BIS list and over 500 other sanction lists with Trademo Sanctions Screener. See how it works!

In a new development, the US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry &amp; Security added 6 businesses of Chinese origin to their sanctions lists. All 6 companies have been penalized for the same reason &#8211; involvement with the PLA, the principal military force operating in China. According to external reports, all 6 companies allegedly contribute to

6 Chinese Aviation Companies Added to the BIS Sanctions List | Trademo Insights

Trademo Sanctions Screener is a restricted party screening platform that helps businesses to screen sanctioned & denied parties and stay compliant with international regulations.


China has enjoyed supremacy in the US imports market for a long time. However, the ongoing US-China trade war and pandemic have changed the dynamics with the US imports from China witnessing a decline. What’s more surprising is the steep rise of the market share of Asian economies in US imports.

We observed this trend for HS code 85 (electrical machinery and equipment) on our Trade Intelligence platform- [Trademo Intel](product).

![Trade Insight Image](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1679035997/website/Trade%20Reports/March-2023-Revamp/graph-US-China-trade-war_ove7xh.png)

_US imports for HS Code 85 have witnessed a cumulative growth of 32% between 2018 to 2022. However, China’s share of overall US imports for HS Code 85 fell from 49% in 2018 to 43% in 2022._

_The key eye-catching trend observed through our data was the growth in electrical machine trade between US and Vietnam. Vietnam’s share of US imports for Electrical Machinery and its equipment witnessed a jump from just 2.2% of the total imports in 2018 to 12.7% in 2022 i.e. almost a 5 times increase in the market share._

This indicates the declining dependency of US importers on China amidst the US-China trade war and diversification towards other Asian economies, particularly Vietnam in this case. We believe that this trend will continue in 2023.

The ongoing US-China trade war and pandemic have changed the dynamics of US imports market accompanies with diversification of trade.

Diversification of US trade away from China | Trademo Insights

Diversification of US Trade Away from China

The UK’s HM Treasury recently added 8 Iranian government officials to their Iran(Human Rights) sanctions list. The sanctions aimed at the officials are financial in nature and look to freeze their funds, assets, & economic resources.

The officials include Iranian judges, members of the military, and politicians. The sanctions come in light of Iran’s continued human rights abuse, torture of protestors/political prisoners, and the constant hostility of Iranian government officials towards UK-based journalists.

Here are the 8 officials and their designations – 

- **Parviz Absalan** – IRGC Deputy Commander(Sistan & Baluchistan)
- **Mohammad Karami** – Governor(Sistan & Baluchistan); Former IRGC Ground Forces Commander
- **Mohammad Taghi Osanloo** – IRGC Ground Forces Commander
- **Amanollah Garshasbi** – IRGC Deputy Commander(Sistan and Baluchistan)
- **Hassan Asgari** – Governor(Sanandaj)
- **Hadi Mansouri** – Presiding Judge(Branch 4; Revolutionary Courts of Mashhad)
- **Morteza Barati** – Presiding Judge(Branch 1; Revolutionary Courts of Isfahan)
- **Musa Al-Hosseini** – Presiding Judge(Branch 1; Revolutionary Courts of Karaj)

5 of the 8 officials mentioned in the list are also sanctioned by the EU & the US in their respective human rights abuses list. It is likely that the UK will add more Iranian officials to its human rights sanction lists in the coming weeks. To keep yourself updated with UK, EU, & US sanction lists, you can subscribe to Trademo Sanctions Screener. 

The UK’s HM Treasury recently added 8 Iranian government officials to their Iran(Human Rights) sanctions list.

8 Iranian Officials Sanctioned by the UK for Human Rights Abuses

Trademo Sanctions Screener is a restricted party screening platform that helps businesses to screen sanctioned & denied parties and stay compliant with international regulations.

On the eve of the 1-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the UK announced a fresh set of sanctions on Russia. The newest sanctions aim to ban “all items Russia has been using on the battlefield.” Apart from the aforementioned, there are also new sanctions against Russian organizations & citizens involved indirectly contributing to the war effort.

**Exports Ban**

Including 100+ goods, the newest export ban by the UK, prohibits UK-based entities from exporting goods to Russia that are being used in their invasion of Ukraine. Aircraft parts, heavy machinery, radio and electrical equipment are among the goods included in the ban.

**Entity/Individual Bans**

The bans on citizens include senior executives across various companies and industries. Included within the sanctions are executives from Russia’s state owned power company Rosatom, executives from its largest defense companies, and Russian elites close to Putin.

The sanction also includes 4 Russian banks, and 6 entities that repair Russian military equipment and supply their front lines.

A total of 34 executives were sanctioned from the 2 defense companies given below- 

- Rostec(state-owned defense company)
- Almaz-Antey(specializes in aircrafts and missiles)

There are also increased measures in place for the following individuals that were previously sanctioned. The aim is to restrict their access to UK trade & finance –

- 20 executives from Gazprom
- Mattias Warnig (CEO, NordStream 2)
- Lyubov Kabaeva (Oligarch)
- Alexei Dyumin (Putin’s Chief Security Guard)
- Viktor Zubkov(Former Russian Prime Minister)
- And many more…


**Import Ban**

To further cripple Russia’s capabilities, the UK is banning imports of over 140 goods processed in third countries using Russian raw materials.

It is likely that the UK will add more officials to its human rights sanction lists in the coming weeks. To keep yourself updated with UK, EU, & US sanction lists, you can subscribe to Trademo Sanctions Screener. Start for free!

On the eve of the 1-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the UK announced a fresh set of sanctions on Russia.

UK bans all Goods used by Russia in the Russia/Ukraine War

US-based 3D printing company 3D Systems Corporation was just fined 20 million dollars for violating export regulations. 

According to the US Department of State’s Defence Trade Compliance Control, the company has violated the Arms Export Controls Act, and the International Traffic in Arms Regulations(ITAR). 

The violations conducted between 2012-18 involved the export of confidential and unauthorized technical data to German, Chinese, & Taiwanese entities and individuals. The violations are made serious by the fact that the data was exported on multiple occasions. In addition, the company has failed to maintain its ITAR records.

Currently, the US has offered a Consent agreement to the company, wherein, they have to pay $20 million to the US government. However, half of this penalty totaling $10 million will be forgiven if 3D Systems Incorporated actively strengthens its compliance program in cooperation with the Government in the next 3 months. This decision by the US government is historical, since it marks one of the first times where exports of technical data are a part of compliance measures.

The company itself is actively participating in implementing proper measures, selling the unit responsible for the ITAR violation and signing a statute of limitations for the statutory period of 3 months.

If 3D Systems fails to pay up or comply with the Department’s requirements, it will be debarred and sanctioned further. To avoid potential violations like 3D Systems, you should consider signing up to Trademo Sanctions Screener. 


US-based 3D printing company 3D Systems Corporation was just fined 20 million dollars for violating export regulations.

3D Systems Corporation to Pay $20 Million for Export Violations

The new Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act Region Alert is all set to go effective from March 18, 2023. It will be deployed by the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) as an enhancement to the Automated Commercial Environment (ACE).

**Note: The Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act or UFLPA was implemented by the US CBP on June 21, 2022, with the aim of preventing imports produced or manufactured wholly, partially, or in any form in the Xinjiang region of the People’s Republic of China.**

### What changes?

The following three validations will be added to the ACE:

- Users will have to enter a postal code.
- An error message will appear if the provided code is not a valid Chinese postal code.
- A warning message will appear if the provided code belongs to the XUAR region.

_It is noted that CBP has denied releasing any list of either valid Chinese postal codes or postal codes of the Xinjiang region._

The above validations will impact the following applications only:

- **Cargo Release (SE) application** – for manufacturer (MF) party and country reported as The People’s Republic of China in the SE36 and/or SE56 record.

- **Manufacturer Identification Code ($I) application** – during creating/updating a manufacturer identification code with a city in The People’s Republic of China.

### What does it mean?

_The new Region Alert will pre-notify the importers/buyers if the concerned goods were manufactured in the XUAR (Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region) and henceforth may not be imported into the US._

_Upon receiving the warning message, the user shall notify the importer about the likely subjection of the goods to the rebuttable presumption of forced labor under the UFLPA._

_Further, the importers may request the CBP for an exception to the rebuttable presumption at any stage suitable._

The new UFLPA Region Alert is a stricter enforcement mechanism of the CBP on a wider range of goods regulated under the UFLPA accompanied by higher shipment seizures, detentions, and audits. As importing from China becomes increasingly difficult and riskier, you can prepare well ahead for all compliance and controls required with Trademo Compliance.

The new Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act Region Alert is all set to go effective from March 18, 2023. It will be deployed by the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) as an enhancement to the Automated Commercial Environment (ACE). Note: The Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act or UFLPA was implemented by the US CBP.

The Much-Awaited UFLPA Region Alert Set On By the US CBP | Trademo Insights

Days after the US implemented the UFLPA Region Alert, Mexico has come up with a resolution seeking to ban imports of goods produced by forced labor.

Mexico has taken this decision in alignment with a provision of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. It demands that all the parties fully curb the import of goods produced wholly or partially by any kind of forced labor including child labor. This action of Mexico is being highly applauded as it promises deeper consolidation of USMCA partners toward tackling transshipment and erasing forced labor from international trade.

### Highlights of the resolution

- _Mexican-origin citizens/entities may petition the Mexican government for banning imports allegedly produced through forced labor._
- _Mexican government can also initiate investigations for the same._
- _Upon acceptance of the petition, the Ministry of Labor and Social Welfare will start an investigation or seek information from the government of the exporting country._
- _If supporting evidence is found, the ministry will contact the importer about the goods and demand the submission of relevant information._
- _It can take up to six months with an extension of another six months for a final decision._
- _Upon proving forced labor, the decision will be published in the Diario Oficial and the import ban will go effective post 90 days._

A trend can be seen as more countries coming together to stand against forced labor by prohibiting trade exchanges with the targeted regions or entities. As a result, companies involved in prohibited business activities are being heavily penalized. You can avoid this happening to your business by staying aware of the international developments in import and export compliance norms with Trademo Compliance.

Days after the US implemented the UFLPA Region Alert, Mexico has come up with a resolution seeking to ban imports of goods produced by forced labor. Mexico has taken this decision in alignment with a provision of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. It demands that all the parties fully curb the import of goods produced wholly.

Mexico Passes Resolution to Ban Imported Goods Produced by Forced Labor | Trademo Insights

Mexico Passes Resolution to Ban Imported Goods Produced by Forced Labor

The US marked one year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by imposing new trade sanctions and import tariffs on Russia.

Continuing the streak of sanctions and export control measures imposed on Russia ever since its Ukraine evasion, the US has come up with new sanctions and tariffs targeting the largest financial institutions and defense industrial base. US Congress also revoked the permanent normal trade relations status of Russia. This means higher taxes imposed on hundreds of Russian imports in the US.

### What Are the New Sanctions and Tariffs Imposed?

**Import Tariffs**

The US government signed two proclamations on Feb 24 imposing import tariffs.

- The first proclamation, going effective on April 1, increases tariffs by 35-70 percent on over 100 Russian minerals, chemical products, and metals.
- The second proclamation has two sets of tariffs: A 200 percent tariff on Russian pure and derivative aluminum goods applicable from March 10. A 200 percent tariff on pure and derivative aluminum goods including any quantity of Russian smelted aluminum or casted in Russian applicable from April 10.

**Export Tariffs**

The US Department of Commerce adds around 90 Russian and third-country companies (found evading sanctions and supporting Russia’s defense sector) to the Entity list. The targeted companies will no longer be able to obtain any items (like semiconductors) produced wholly/partially in the US or using US technology in any way.

BIS, DOC is also in action with G-7 partners and allies to implore similar measures on other items like industrial equipment, luxury articles, etc.

BIS also amended the Export Administrations Regulations (EAR) to pass restrictions preventing Iranian drone components from making inroads into the Ukrainian battlefield.

**Trade Sanctions**

The State and Treasury Departments imposed sanctions on over 200 entities from Russian and third countries including the Middle East, Asia, and Europe. This also means:

- Sanctions were imposed on other entities related to the Russian defense and technology industry and found evading Russian sanctions or illegally stocking sanctioned goods.
- Target on Russian future energy sources.
- Sanctions imposed on the Russian metal and mining sector too.

As the list of sanctions and tariffs continues to grow and interrupt trade between countries, you must keep pace to ensure full compliance for your business and avoid penalties. Trademo Compliance can help you with this.

The US marked one year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by imposing new trade sanctions and import tariffs on Russia. Continuing the streak of sanctions and export control measures imposed on Russia ever since its Ukraine evasion, the US has come up with new sanctions and tariffs targeting the largest financial institutions and defense industrial

New US Trade Sanctions and Tariffs on The Way for Russia | Trademo Insights

New US Trade Sanctions and Tariffs on The Way for Russia

Everyone is gearing up for the holiday season and manufacturers & retailers are also ready with their inventories. Traditionally, the importers in the US market would prepare their stocks of season’s goodies, especially toys, during the year’s second half to meet the increasing demand during the holiday season.

Following are the primary HS Codes for toys:

- [9503:Tricycles, scale models, etc, puzzles, parts, etc](all-hscode/united-states/6-digit/9503)
- [9504: articles for arcade, table, or parlor games, parts](all-hscode/united-states/6-digit/9504)
- [9505: festive, carnival, or other entertainment art, pts](all-hscode/united-states/6-digit/9505)

Manufacturers would stock up on their inventories of toys in or around October, leading to the highest surge in toy imports in the US market around this month of the year. In a surprisingly new development in 2022, August has become the month of stockpiling replacing October.

Here is what our Trade Data Intelligence Platform – Intel has to show.

For 2014-21, October remained the primary month of accumulating toys inventory with an average of 15% of the total annual imports volume(basis TEU) of toy imports. At the same time, other months only held approximately 7% of the total yearly imports volume of toy imports.

However, in 2022, August surpassed every month with 14% of the total annual imports volume vs October with 8% of the yearly imports volume.

The cause for the shift can be traced back to the supply chain disruptions in 2021. Issues like supply shortages, factory disruptions, labor strikes, pent-up demand, growing cargo wait times, and many more pushed the manufacturers to prepare well for the Holiday season and keep their business running. This highlights how businesses and global supply chains are adapting to manage unprecedented supply chain disruptions.

![Trade Insight Image](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1680256178/website/Trade%20Reports/March-2023-Revamp/graph-2_e5mmes.jpg)


Everyone is gearing up for the holiday season and manufacturers &amp; retailers are also ready with their inventories.

Changing Landscape of Toy Imports for the Holiday Season in 2022

Environment-friendly transport is becoming the new choice of USA commuters as US import of electric vehicles has registered a remarkable surge in the past five years. _This is demonstrated by a staggering 2800% increase in the dollar value of EV imports from $368 Mn in 2017 to $10 Bn in 2022 (Data source: Trademo Intel)._

_Among the exporters, Germany has emerged as the leader with a 33% share, followed by South Korea at 25% and Mexico at 21% of total US imports in 2022 for Electric Vehicles._

![Trade Insight Image](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1679035772/website/Trade%20Reports/March-2023-Revamp/image-4_sn8xow.png)

### Rise of Related Industries and their Correlation

Industries related to the electric vehicles industry such as the Lithium battery industry (HS Code: 850650) and the Battery Monitoring Systems (BMS)/Battery Charger industry (HS Code: 850440) have also experienced a surge in imports.

_From 2017 to 2022, the BMS/Battery Charger industry imports have grown by a significant 68% while the Lithium battery industry has increased by 11%._

_In 2022 alone, the BMS/Battery Charger industry possessed an overall trade value of $16 billion. China held a 25% share with a trade value of $3.9 billion, followed by Mexico with a 12% share and a trade value of $1.9 billion, and Vietnam with a 9% share and a trade value of $1.4 billion. Speaking of the Lithium Battery industry, it held a 47% share of overall imports with Singapore, China, and Israel being the major contributors._

![Trade Insight Image](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1679035772/website/Trade%20Reports/March-2023-Revamp/image_4_iosebl.png)

The correlation analysis for the import data between 2017 to 2022 revealed a high correlation among the industries mentioned above. This means that any fluctuations or changes in one industry can significantly affect others.

The following table represents the correlation matrix.

| - |  Lithium Battery Industry | Electric Motor Vehicles | BMS/Battery Charger Industry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lithium Battery Industry | 1 | - | - |
| Electric Motor Vehicles | 0.441 | - | - |
| BMS/Battery Charger Industry | 0.504 | 0.984 | 1 |

The correlation coefficient of imports of EVs and Lithium batteries and imports of BMS/Battery Charger Industry and Lithium batteries is 0.5 which is moderately strong. However, the correlation coefficient of imports of EVs and the BMS/Battery Charger Industry is 0.98 which is highly strong. This indicates that changes in imports of EVs directly impact imports of the BMS/Battery Charger Industry, and vice versa.

For more such advanced trade insights, check out Trademo Intel.





The EV industry is witnessing an astounding growth in the US. Read more to get a better view of the entire picture.

The Rapid Evolution of EV industry in the US | Trademo Insights

Shifting Gears: The Rapid Evolution of EV Industry

The global fruit industry has experienced remarkable growth in the last few years, with the demand for fresh fruits rising. Since 2017, the imports for the fruit industry have grown by a whopping 34%, reaching $25 billion in 2022 from $18 billion in 2017.

In addition, the recent global disruptions have created a volatile trade environment for most countries and their prominent industries. However, one thing has remained constant across these disruptions - the dominance of Mexico, Peru, and Chile in the US fruit industry.

_Exports from Mexico, Peru, and Chile account for a staggering 64% of all fruit imports(HS Code - 08) in the US fruit industry as of 2022. Of the three, Mexico holds the largest market share at about 43%_.

![Trade Insight Image](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1680675739/website/Trade%20Reports/March-2023-Revamp/image-20230324-115149_yu4qd1.png)

_Additionally, for 4-digit HS codes 0810, 0806, and 0804, which specifically refer to fresh or dried fruits such as bananas, grapes, and dates, Mexico, Chile, and Peru also top the list as exporters to the US_.

As you dive deeper into 6-digit HS codes such as 081010, 080450, and 080610 this trend repeats. These HS Codes represent specific types of fruits such as strawberries, guavas, and cranberries respectively. The data suggests that these three countries have a significant advantage in the production and export of fruits and vegetables to the US. Based on historical analysis, this trend will likely continue for the foreseeable future.

**Mexico**

Mexico has established itself as a dominant player in the fruit export industry. It is the leading exporter to the US for strawberries, guava, and mango. Since 2017, Mexico holds a mind-numbing 98% market share for strawberry exports to the USA.

In addition, Mexico also leads the way in guava and mango imports, contributing to over 50% share of total imports since 2017 for both fruits.

![Trade Insight Image](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1680675739/website/Trade%20Reports/March-2023-Revamp/image-20230327-092516_z0odcw.png)

The trade value of these imports has also increased significantly over the past five years, with the import value of strawberries increasing by 68% from $637M in 2017 to $1.07B in 2022. Similarly, the trade value of guava and mango imports has seen a 33% increase, rising from $368M in 2017 to $490M in 2022. Mexico's continued dominance in exports to the US in these categories highlights the country's strength in fruit production and export and the likelihood of its continued success in the future.

**Peru & Chile**

Peru and Chile have focused on cranberry and grapes as their major exports. In terms of grape exports for the US, Chile has traditionally held the majority market share, but its dominance has waned over the years, with its share declining from 51% in 2017 to 35% in 2022. Peru, on the other hand, has seen its share of grape exports to the US increase from 30% in 2017 to 35% in 2022. The country is now competing with Chile for the top spot.

![Trade Insight Image](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1680675740/website/Trade%20Reports/March-2023-Revamp/graph03-1_kmoyvg.jpg)

Peru's growth in cranberry exports has been remarkable, with an incredible 400% increase in recent years. In 2018, it surpassed Chile as the leading exporter of cranberries to the USA, and it has held onto that title since then, with a whopping 45% share of total cranberry exports and a trade value of $857 million.

The future paints a positive picture for the fruit industry in these three countries. With an upwards growth trajectory and improving US demand, it presents numerous opportunities for businesses. If you are a part of the fruit industry between these three countries and the US, consider trying out Trademo Intel. Intel helps drive revenue and growth for buyers and suppliers around the world with trade insights and data for global supply chains.

The global fruit industry has experienced remarkable growth in the last few years, with the demand for fresh fruits rising.

From South to North: How Mexico, Peru, and Chile Lead the Fruit Imports in the US

In a historic move on the 31st of March, Britain announced its entry into the Indo-Pacific Trade Bloc.

The UK government is ready to become the 12th and first European member of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership. This will open the doors of a rich trading region with an £11 trillion ($13.6 trillion) GDP for British businesses and organizations. The deal is expected to be formalized by the end of 2023 following the approvals from Parliament and 11 member states.

Striking the biggest post-Brexit trade deal, the UK is presently taking pride in putting the country at the center stage of blooming Pacific economies.

**_"We are at our heart an open and free-trading nation, and this deal demonstrates the real economic benefits of our post-Brexit freedoms. British businesses will now enjoy unparalleled access to markets from Europe to the South Pacific.", said Rishi Sunak, Prime Minister of the UK._**


### About the Indo-Pacific Trade Bloc
The CPTPP endorses a massive trade bloc spanning over countries like Canada, Mexico, Japan, Australia, Vietnam, Singapore, and Malaysia, among others. This trade agreement is a renewed version of the scraped Trans-Pacific Partnership formed by the US government.


### What does this deal mean for Britain?
- Expected tariff reduction on export items including food, drink, and cars.
- Access to a vast market with over 500 million people and enormous trading opportunities.
- Estimated growth of the global GDP by 15% following the deal.
- Estimated growth of the UK economy by £1.8 billion or by 0.08% with impact visible in the longer run.
- Estimated wage rise by £800 million which is higher than the 2019 levels.

Experts are calling this trade deal a progressive approach towards the global markets to bolster the UK economy and pave a smoother road for future trading initiatives. There is a lot more to speculate over the actual outcomes and growth prospects expected to emerge from this deal.

Trade agreements play a crucial role in the valuation and compliance requirements for imports and exports alike. You can stay updated with all the regulatory changes with the help of Trademo Compliance.

The UK government is ready to become the 12th and first European member of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Britain strikes a major post-Brexit deal, enters the Indo-Pacific trade bloc | Trademo News

Britain strikes a major post-Brexit deal, enters the Indo-Pacific trade bloc

It’s been a year since the beginning of the Ukraine-Russia war.  The war has since significantly changed  the state of global geopolitics and economy. Among the plethora of consequences, the sanctions levied on Russia by the United States altered the state of trading relations between the two superpowers. We went in depth and studied the overall impact of the war and ensuing sanctions on trade. Here are our major findings:

The US imports from Russia hit the lowest during this period since 2018. Their total value in June 2022 was $704M, way less than the monthly average imports of $2.5B.

Similarly, the US exports to Russia also were at an all-time low, falling to a low of $89M in April 2022, as opposed to the monthly average export of $532M in 2022.

It remains to be seen how the trade relations between the two countries will evolve in the coming years.

![Trade Insight Image](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1681388422/website/Blog/image-20230329-125858_fgf0os.png)

![Trade Insight Image](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1681388422/website/Blog/image-20230329-125841_sghg2o.png)

Such a remarkable impact of the war on the trading relations between the two countries led us to wonder how the state would have been given the war never happened. To evaluate the hypothetical trade outcome in the absence of the war, we utilized the forecasting technique of moving averages. This method utilizes the average of past data to predict future trends.

As per our analysis, assuming that the war between the US and Ukraine had not occurred, the trade flow between the US and Russia would likely have remained stable or even increased.

![Trade Insight Image](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1681388422/website/Blog/Imports_MA_h7egxm.png)

![Trade Insight Image](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1681388422/website/Blog/Exports_MA_bpmdgl.png)

Looking at the state of Russia’s performance on the global trade front, the scenario is totally different. Russia is doing well in multiple sectors and even growing significantly. We will be exploring Russia’s growing trade relations in other sectors and with different global partners in our next insights. Stay Tuned!

It’s been a year since the Ukraine-Russia war happened that significantly impacted the state of global geopolitics and economy.

A Year Later: Evaluating the Impact of the Ukraine-Russia War on US-Russia Trade Relations |  Trademo Insights

A Year Later: Evaluating the Impact of the Ukraine-Russia War on US-Russia Trade Relations


The Bureau of Industry & Security under the US Department of Commerce have recently added 28 Entities to the [Export Administration Regulations](blog/2023/03/29/everything-about-the-export-administration-regulations/). These entities deal in dual-use goods and services with both civilian and military applications.

The sanctions on these entities are scheduled to be published on 17th April, 2023. The sanctions are mainly aimed at entities that actively deal with Russia, China, and Iran.

The 28 entities added originate from various countries - Armenia (1), China(12), Malta (1), Russia (10), Singapore (1), Spain (1), Syria (1), Turkey (1), UAE (2), and Uzbekistan (2). 

All of the companies & entities targeted with the latest round of sanctions directly or indirectly are dealing with the Russian government and providing goods/services to the Russian military in their invasion of Ukraine.

The US department of commerce deems their actions as a violation to US national security and foreign policy. Here is a list of the 28 entities divided based on their country of origin -

#### Russia
- Art Logistics LLC,
- ETC Electronics,
- GFK Logistics LLC,
- Novastream Limited,
- OOO Vest-Ost,
- Promelektronika,
- SKS Elektron Broker LLC,
- TD Promelektronika LLC,
- Trust Logistics,
- Trust Logistics Group LLC. 

#### China
- 3HC Semiconductors (HK) Co., Ltd.,
- Allparts Trading Co., Ltd.,
- Avtex Semiconductor Limited,
- ETC Electronics Ltd.,
- Leadway Technology Limited,
- Maxtronic International Co., Ltd.,
- Newsuntech Electronics Limited,
- STK Electronics (HK) Co., Ltd.,
- Wynn Electronics Co. Ltd.,
- Xinnlinx Electronics Pte Ltd.,
- Yishang Network (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd.,
- Yongli Electronic Components (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd.

#### Armenia
Tako LLC.

#### Malta
I JET GLOBAL DMCC. 

#### Singapore
Xinnlinx Electronics Pte Ltd. 

#### Spain
I JET GLOBAL DMCC. 

#### Syria
I JET GLOBAL DMCC. 

#### Turkey
Dexias Industrial Products and Trade Limited Company. 

#### United Arab Emirates 
- I JET GLOBAL DMCC,
- Success Aviation Services FZC. 

#### Uzbekistan
- Alfa Beta Creative LLC, 
- GFK Logistic Asia LLC.

It is likely that the US will add more entities to the EAR entity list in the coming weeks. To keep yourself updated with US, EU, & UK sanction lists, you can subscribe to Trademo Sanctions Screener.


The Bureau of Industry & Security under the US Department of Commerce have recently added 28 Entities to the EAR list.

28 Entities Added to the US Export Administration Regulations(EAR) for Colluding with Russia

Found guilty of violating sanctions and bank fraud, British American Tobacco (BAT) and BAT Marketing Singapore (BAT’s Subsidiary) recently received charges from the US authorities including combined penalties and fines of over $629 Million. On 25th April 2023, the Department of Treasury issue a civil enforcement action against the two organizations.

BAT is a UK-based company and one of the biggest tobacco products manufacturer in the world.

The entities were found guilty of violating the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and bank fraud statute due to continuing an unauthorized business of tobacco sales in North Korea. Through a press release in 2007, BAT announced the transfer of its North Korean sales to a third-party company with no personal role in it. However, it was found they were continuing the business through that company with BATMS monitoring all the business activities. BATMS has pleaded guilty to the criminal case in the District of Columbia while BAT has accepted a deferred prosecution agreement for similar charges.

Charges related to the case were pressed on three more entities including a North Korean Banker and two Chinese facilitators accused of illegal assistance to the tobacco sale in North Korea.

_**“Today’s action, which involves the largest North Korean sanctions penalty in the history of the Justice Department, should serve as a clear warning to companies everywhere about the costs and consequences of violating U.S. sanctions,”** said Assistant Attorney General Matthew G. Olsen of the Justice Department’s National Security Division._

The entities circumvented the sanctions and led the US financial institutions to approve approximately 310 otherwise illegal transactions. This resulted in a revenue of nearly $700 Million for the North Korean manufacturers which ultimately funded the North Korean regime’s nuclear weapon proliferation programs. Tobacco product smuggling including counterfeit cigarettes also brings much of the revenue supporting the WMD programs.

How steadfastly the US authorities including the FBI have handled this case demonstrates the seriousness of the United States in averting nation-state threats. As such cases severely impact all the entities involved, it is crucial to stay aware of the sanctions and embargoes updates and avoid business with any of them. Trademo Sanctions Screener helps you actively screen business partners against global restricted party lists.

British American Tobacco Held Accused of Illegal Tobacco Trade with North Korea by US Authorities. Read more.

British American Tobacco Held Accused of Illegal Tobacco Trade with North Korea by US Authorities

British American Tobacco Held Accused of Illegal Tobacco Trade with North Korea by US Authorities, Receives Penalties Worth Over $629 Million

In a recent development, the United States Department of State blacklisted Wasantha Karanngoda, Governor of North Western Province of Sri Lanka. The sanctions apply to the Governor and his wife, Srimathi Ashoka Karanngoda. Under it, the two are ineligible for entry into the United States.

Wasantha was a commander for the Sri Lankan navy between 2005-2009. The sanctions are in light of the commander’s actions during the final phase of the Sri Lankan Civil War. His actions have been documented & verified by a number of NGO and official independent investigations.

According to the US department of State, “Wasantha Karannagoda committed a gross human rights violation, documented by NGOs and independent investigations, is serious and credible.” In recent years, the US has sanctioned several Sri Lankan military personnel that participated in the atrocities committed during the Civil War. 

It is important for your business to stay updated about the latest PEP and sanction related changes around the world. Check out how Trademo Sanction Screener can help protect your business from sanction violations.


In a recent development, the United States Department of State blacklisted Wasantha Karanngoda, Governor of North Western Province of Sri Lanka

U.S. Blacklists Former Sri Lankan Navy Commander for "Gross Human Rights Violations"

U.S. Blacklists Former Sri Lankan Navy Commander for “Gross Human Rights Violations”

The Ukraine-Russia war drastically altered the global trading landscape with the impact being visibly largest on the US-Russia trade dynamics. As the US imposed various sanctions on Russia and continues to do so, the volume of trading exchange between the two countries dropped significantly. While the US imports from Russia fell by 71%, US exports to Russia came down by 83%.

In an attempt to better gauge the trade partnership scenario between US and Russia post-war, we examined the trade statistics for Petroleum Oil (HS Code 2079), the top item among Russia exports to the US. With the data and insights fetched from Trademo Intel, we will depict the impact of the war on this specific Russia export item and what the potential road to recovery looks like.


## The State of Petroleum Oil Trade in the US and Russia (2021-22)

Due to the ongoing tensions between the two countries, trading activities stood at an all-time low. However, the import of petroleum oil to the US and export of the same from Russia continued to steadily grow. Many reasons can be attributed to this trend in the particular sector given the geopolitical disruptions happening around. The two images below depict the growing trend of petroleum imports and exports for the US and Russia respectively.

![Trade Insight Image](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/q_auto:best/v1683030081/website/Trade%20Reports/March-2023-Revamp/image_6_km6xud.png)

![Trade Insight Image](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/q_auto:best/v1683030081/website/Trade%20Reports/March-2023-Revamp/image_7_lkhyl9.png)

As per the latest trade data fetched from Trademo Intel, the imports of petroleum oil to the US from countries around the globe grew by 47% during the period 2021-22. The same growth trend was seen for the export of petroleum oil from Russia globally grew by 28% during the same period. It is noteworthy how the growth trend for US Imports and Russian exports of petroleum oil has continued into the most recent years.


## Current Players Importing Petroleum Oil to the US

As the US-Russia trade landscape destabilized due to the war, the US turned to other players in the field for fulfilling its petroleum requirements. While the US imports from Russia of petroleum oil crumbled down to nearly ceasing altogether at the beginning of 2022, countries like Canada and Mexico emerged as the top exporter of petroleum to the US. While petroleum exports to the US from Canada have grown by 34%, Mexico's exports to the US for the same item have risen by an impressive 154%. 

The huge increase in imports coming from Mexico can be considered a result of Nearshoring, a recent trend that involves moving production or sourcing of goods closer to the final consumer market. Nearshoring can be seen as holding the potential to shape the future of US imports of petroleum and other goods in the near future.

![Trade Insight Image](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/q_auto:best/v1683030081/website/Trade%20Reports/March-2023-Revamp/image_9_de5v9d.png)


## Other Countries Russia Exports Petroleum Oil From Now

US sanctions and seizure of imports from Russia due to the war impacted the trade dynamics between the two countries but not Russia’s worldwide trading stature. Despite Russia receiving the ire of many countries due to its stand in the war, its trading exchanges continued to flourish with plenty of countries still. Speaking of petroleum oil, Russia’s exports to many other countries including India, China, and Italy grew at astonishing rates of 689%, 42%, and 150%, respectively, compared to the imports before the war.

![Trade Insight Image](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/q_auto:best/v1683030081/website/Trade%20Reports/March-2023-Revamp/image_8_fgnkvb.png)



Learn more about how the dwindling US-Russia trade relations are giving way to new players in the key imports/exports industry.

New Players Drive US and Russia Oil Demand & Supply Post-War  |  Trademo Insights

New Players Drive US and Russia Oil Demand and Supply Post War

The European Union has released critical updates to its Combined Nomenclature (CN) on October 31, 2023, set to take effect from January 1, 2024. These alterations encompass several notable modifications across various chapters and headings, influencing specific products and their classifications within the CN.

## Changes in Combined Nomenclature Codes

- Chapter 8 (Fruit): Introduction of a new tariff subheading for a variety of bananas under CN 0803 90 11.
- Chapter 20 (Vegetables): Introduction of new tariff subheadings for peeled tomatoes (CN 2002 10 11 and CN 2002 10 19) and other tomatoes (CN 2002 90 41, CN 2002 90 49, and CN 2002 90 80).
- Chapter 39 (Plastic Products): Changes impacting tariff heading 3915, including deletion of subheadings and introduction of new ones, particularly for waste, pairings, and scrap made of polymers of ethylene (CN 3915 10 10 and CN 3915 10 20) to replace earlier subheadings.

### Additional updates 

- Alterations in Combined Nomenclature Codes for woven fabrics of silk or silk waste (tariff heading 5007)
- Non-wovens of man-made filaments (tariff heading 5603), and glass fibers and related articles (tariff heading 7019)
- Addition of new CN-codes for passive optical splitters and other devices, appliances, and instruments (heading 9013)
- Replacement of subheading CN 9401 99 90 to introduce separate CN-codes for parts of seats used in motor vehicles, complying with the European Court of Justice.

## Significant Amendments Other Than Combined Nomenclature Updates

There are some other notable amendments which include:
- Gradual reduction of duty rates for products covered by the Declaration on the Expansion of Trade in Information Technology Products.
- Amendments in the classification of certain substances in the list of non-proprietary names of pharmaceutical substances in Annex 3 of Part Three (Tariff Annexes) of the CN.

## Changes in EU Emissions Trading System 2024
EU's Emissions Trading System (ETS), pivotal for curbing greenhouse gas emissions, underwent significant transformations in 2024. 

**Expansion to Include Maritime Transport**
EU ETS began covering emissions from maritime transport, targeting 50% of emissions from voyages starting or ending outside the EU and 100% of emissions from voyages between EU ports or within EU ports.

**Inclusion of Waste Incineration Facilities** 
Waste incineration facilities surpassing specific thresholds were mandated to monitor and report emissions under the EU ETS.

These changes signify the European Union's impactful initiatives in both trade and environmental policies, marking their implementation from January 1, 2024. These updates illustrate the EU's commitment to refining regulatory frameworks to align with evolving global trade dynamics and environmental imperatives. 

Discover the EU's pivotal updates to Combined Nomenclature (CN) and Emissions Trading System (ETS) in 2024. Explore impactful trade code modifications and environmental policy shifts set to take effect on January 1st, 2024.

EU's 2024 Trade & Environmental Policy Updates: HS Code Validation Required

HS code validation is essential in international trade, particularly when updating Harmonized System (HS) codes. Accurate classification of goods under updated codes ensures compliance with evolving customs regulations, preventing potential errors and facilitating seamless global trade operations

European Union's Amendments Effective from January 2024

On December 18, 2023, the EU unveiled the 12th package of sanctions targeting Russia through Regulations (EU) 2023/2878 and (EU) 2023/2875. These amendments, effective immediately from December 19, 2023, have a significant impact on businesses operating in Russia or seeking to exit the region. Key measures include expanding controlled business services, ending exemptions for certain services to Russian subsidiaries, and extending divestment licensing deadlines. Moreover, bans have been imposed on Russian diamonds, with some additional import/export restrictions and stringent measures against entities supporting Russia's military-industrial complex. These sanctions significantly affect businesses across sectors and even those not directly trading with Russia must be careful about circumvention risks. 


_"With this 12th package, we are putting forward a robust set of new listings and economic measures which will further weaken Russia’s war machine. Our message is clear, as I already stated when I chaired the informal Foreign Affairs Council in Kyiv: we remain steadfast in our commitment to Ukraine and will continue to support its fight for freedom and sovereignty."_

- Josep Borrell, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy 

In brief, the 12th EU Russia Sanctions Package encompasses, among other measures, the following provisions:

## Expansion of controlled business services covered under Article 5n

The scope of controlled business services as articulated in Article 5n has been broadened beyond the earlier boundaries of services exclusively offered to the Government of Russia or Russian authorities. The initial ban on Government of Russia and Russian entity services such as accounting, legal advisory, auditing and architectural services has been widened. This revised policy helps in extending the reach of the restrictions, now it prevents the trade or transfer of software suited for business management and industrial engineering. The restrictions on software are now extended to a large number of sectors including architecture, engineering, construction and manufacturing, media, education, and entertainment. This shows how much the restrictions have spread and how far they have reached.

The recent prohibition can greatly impact the operation of the Russian subsidiaries of Western companies that depend on Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) and different types of business software. This restriction is mentioned in Annex XXXIX of EU Regulation 833/2014 and covers the following business software:

- Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), Customer Relationship Management (CRM), Business Intelligence (BI), Supply Chain Management (SCM), Enterprise Data Warehouse (EDW), Computerized Maintenance Management System (CMMS), Project Management Software, Product Lifecycle Management (PLM), and typical components of the above-mentioned suites, including software for accounting, fleet management, logistics and human resource

- Building Information Modelling (BIM), Computer Aided Design (CAD), Computer-Aided Manufacturing (CAM), Engineer to Order (ETO), and typical components of above-mentioned suites.

## Wind down of the “partner country” exemption for controlled business services under Article 5n7

Following a six-month wind-down period expiring on 20 June 2024, the EU will eliminate the exemption for the provision of controlled business services to Russian subsidiaries of companies headquartered in the EU or other partner countries. This means that an authorization from the competent authority will be required to continue to provide controlled business services to Russian subsidiaries of companies headquartered in the EU or other partner countries.  Currently, the partner countries involved in this initiative include the US, Japan, the UK, South Korea, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, and Switzerland.

## Extension of Article 12b divestment licensing grounds

The deadlines pertaining to licenses for the sale, supply, import, transfer of controlled items, and the provision of controlled business services essential for divesting from Russia have been extended. These extensions vary, stretching to 30th June 2024, 31st July 2024, or 30th September 2024, contingent on the specific sanction involved.

## Bans on Russian Diamonds

The EU has imposed bans on the direct or indirect import, purchase, or transfer of diamonds sourced from Russia. This ban encompasses diamonds of Russian origin, those exported from Russia, those passing through Russia, as well as Russian diamonds processed in third countries.

Starting from 1st January 2024, there will be a direct prohibition on non-industrial natural and synthetic diamonds, along with diamond jewelry. Additionally, an indirect import ban on Russian diamonds, when processed elsewhere (cut and/or polished), including jewelry containing these diamonds, will be phased in gradually, starting from 1st March 2024, and concluding by 1st September 2024. This phased approach aims to implement a traceability mechanism ensuring effective enforcement and minimal disruptions in the EU market.

This initiative to ban Russian diamonds aligns with a G7 initiative seeking an internationally coordinated prohibition on diamonds, aiming to deprive Russia of a crucial revenue source.

## Restrictions and Controls on Import and Export

The council added 29 new entities in the list supporting Russia's military and industrial complex in its aggression against Ukraine. This means that entities will have more limitations when it comes to exporting dual-use goods and technologies that could strengthen Russia's defense and security sector. There are several companies in this list which are part of the countries that have been found to breach the economic sanctions. Additionally, some of these entities are Russian businesses involved in the manufacturing and supply of electronics for their military and industrial sectors. 

Additionally, the current regulation broadens the range of restricted items capable of advancing Russia's defense and security sector technologically. This expansion now includes chemicals, lithium batteries, thermostats, DC motors, and servo motors specifically designed for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), as well as machine tools and parts of machinery.

Further, the EU has imposed some additional restrictions on specific imports that profoundly  contribute to Russia's revenue, for its ongoing aggressive actions against Ukraine. Items like pig iron, spiegeleisen, copper wires, aluminum wires, foil, tubes, and pipes, valued at €2.2 billion annually, are now subject to bans. Moreover, there's a new ban on liquefied propane (LPG) with a 12-month transitional phase.

Moreover, exemptions to import restrictions have been introduced by the Council, allowing for personal use items like personal hygiene products, clothing worn by travelers, or items in their luggage to be exempt. Also, cars with diplomatic vehicle registration plates are permitted entry into the EU. Moreover, to facilitate the entry of EU citizens residing in Russia, member states have the authority to allow the entry of their cars, provided they're not intended for sale and strictly for personal use.

## Additional Measures to Enforce the Oil Price Cap

To reinforce the measures of the price cap mechanism, the EU has implemented a robust information-sharing protocol. This makes it mandatory for businesses involved in Russian oil trade to disclose price details for additional expenses like insurance and freight across the supply chain upon request. 

Moreover, the EU has implemented notification regulations for tanker sales to third countries. This initiative is aimed to enhance transparency, particularly concerning the sale and export of second-hand carriers, minimizing the potential for evading the import restrictions on Russian crude or petroleum products and the G7 Price Cap.

## The No-Russia Clause

The latest ruling mandates EU exporters to include contractual clauses restricting the re-exportation to Russia or for use within Russia of highly sensitive goods and technology when selling, supplying, transferring, or exporting to a third country, except for partner nations. 

This clause encompasses items integral to Russian military systems detected on the Ukrainian battlefield or crucial to the conception, manufacture, or utilization of these systems, along with aviation-related items and weaponry.

## Restrictive Measures on Russian Iron and Steel

The EU has introduced a new Annex XXXVI under Regulation (EU) 833/2014, outlining partner countries that enforce restrictive measures on Russian iron and steel imports, currently applicable to Switzerland and Norway. Consequently, importers handling products originating from these nations aren’t obligated to furnish evidence of the iron and steel input's origin for product processing. Furthermore, the EU has extended the duration of winding-down periods for specific steel product imports.

## Reporting obligations on EU transfers over EUR 100,000

The 12th EU Russia Sanctions Package brought in new regulations mandating the reporting of fund transfers exceeding EUR 100,000 from the Union. This requirement applies to entities owned, directly or indirectly, by establishments in Russia, Russian nationals, or individuals residing in Russia.

## Prohibition for Russian nationals to possess, control, or maintain positions within the governing bodies of entities offering crypto-asset wallet, account, or custody services

To prevent bypassing the ban on offering crypto-asset wallet, account, or custody services to Russian individuals, the 12th EU Russia Sanctions Package introduces a prohibition on Russian nationals or residents holding ownership, control, or positions within the governing bodies of entities providing these services.



















Explore significant repercussions of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict as the EU implements its 12th sanctions package, reshaping economic landscapes and diplomatic relations 

Get insights on EU's 12th sanctions package amidst Russia-Ukraine war

Heightened international conflicts prompt the implementation of sanctions and bans, significantly impacting cross-border trade and geopolitical relations

Russia-Ukraine War Impact: EU Adopts 12th Package of Economic and Individual Sanctions

The Israel-Hamas War has been at center stage in terms of geopolitical conflicts today. Starting on October 7, 2023, it has had many repercussions in terms of socio-economic, financial, and supply chain factors, such as the attacks on Israel-linked ships in the Red Sea by Houthis. We take a look at how the Middle Eastern nation prepared for this outcome beforehand and the repercussions faced because of the war, specifically its impact on Israel's global trade.

## Israel’s Economic Landscape

Israel's economy was set to [grow by 3.4% in 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-economic-growth-slow-2-2023-16-2024-due-war-finance-ministry-2023-11-23/#:~:text=Middle%20East-,Israel's%20economic%20growth%20to%20slow%20to%202%25%20in,due%20to%20war%20%2Dfinance%20ministry&text=JERUSALEM%2C%20Nov%2023%20(Reuters),of%20Israel's%20war%20with%20Hamas.), but the war set new expectations for the Israeli government, which changed their annual projections to 2%. Compared to 2022, when Israel's economy grew by 6.5%, its growth rate has taken a significant hit. Their 2.2% projection for 2024 further outlines the impact of war on the national economy.

Global trade is a major contributor to any country's economy and growth, and looking at Israel’s trading patterns, Trademo has identified notable changes. Being its largest trade partner, United States imports and exports account for over a quarter of Israel's trade according to the [World Bank](https://wits.worldbank.org/CountrySnapshot/en/ISR). Insights sourced from Trademo Intel into the US containerized shipping data revealed shifts in Israel's trade such as a decline in shipment numbers after the war started, but also an odd rise in maritime activity a few months prior.

## Israel Export Trends

Looking at data from June of last year, it becomes clear that shipments from Israel to the US have declined since the start of the war with Hamas. The majority of shipments from Israel to the States comprised primarily of pharmaceutical and medical products, articles and finished products of plastics, organic and inorganic chemicals, food and edible preparations such as cereals & starch, construction materials, heavy machinery & parts, and items of clothing and apparel.

![ASEAN Sourcing](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1704888076/website/Blog/War_insights_1_l9oycr.webp)

While there is an increase in the export of pharmaceutical goods contributing to November’s trends, it was noted that there was a decline in the export of heavy machinery and related goods to the US in August of 2023. While the total number of shipments is rising to normal, the weight of shipments is reducing still, meaning only lighter products are being produced and shipped out. December saw another low as the war is still fought in the Gaza Strip. 

## Israel Import Trends

Containerized shipment data till October shows that import trends seem normal considering global trade’s ups and downs, but looking at things granularly, July shows the highest volume traded by USD value, accounting for well over a billion dollars in the month. This number is the second largest in the history of Israel’s imports in a month, with the highest being in May of 2022, which mostly comprised machines and machinery, electrical equipment, chemicals, plastics, vehicles, and aircraft parts. 

![ASEAN Sourcing](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1704888076/website/Blog/War_insights_2_xp2jho.webp)

Most of Israel’s containerized imports from June consisted of vehicles and vehicle parts, iron and steel nuts, bolts, screws, and washers, electrical and heavy machinery and parts, articles and products of plastics and polymers, metals and alloys, chemicals, essential oils, soaps, and other organic goods. While the total shipment value has declined since July, the total weight of shipments saw a steep rise after the war started, mostly contributed by vehicles, alloys, and polymers. 


## Interesting Insights from Months Before the War

Something very interesting strikes the eye when zoomed out to look at certain import trends from the start of 2023. To start things off, Israel is the most advanced nation in the Middle East, and it is anticipated that its intelligence agencies are the most sophisticated and well-aware of the geopolitical scenarios unfolding. While many experts from around the world, including Israel’s government officials expected the nation to see an imminent attack incoming, at the very least from its highly secure and monitored boundaries with the Gaza Strip, Israel always claimed the ambush was unanticipated, even though Hamas stated it would do so on a Jewish holiday, and the _Simchat Torah_ on October 7 was one.

One might question otherwise once the shipment details from the States are inspected. An atypical rise in the shipments of hard plastics, precious and heavy metals, machinery & mechanical parts, chemicals, personnel transport vehicle parts, articles of steel like nuts & bolts, parts of tanks, and parts of manned & unmanned aircraft was noticed from the first half of 2023. Aluminum & its alloys, and rare-earth metals like titanium, crucial ingredients for Israel’s Iron Dome missiles, saw a rise from February to April.

With certain articles of plastic and unspecified chemical products, specifically with the 6-digit HS codes 392690 & 382499, an unexpected spike in mid-2023 was noted, with negligible shipments historically. This deviation further highlighted the rather surprising upswing in the import of spent lead acid batteries (854911) and electric motors and parts (850153) in July with no prior shipments in the past, leading to speculation that their EV industry is being focused on heavily. It is no secret that Israel is a military manufacturing powerhouse, and the rise of electric vehicles and their advantages and applications in warfare are constantly highlighted by militaries across the globe, especially the US Army. These imports combined are reflected in the graph below, although shown in USD values, speak volumes.


![ASEAN Sourcing](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1704896842/website/Blog/insights-war-3_pehzvz.webp)

Another point to note is the unusual decline in the imports of arms, ammunition, and parts from the US. Since March of 2023, they have been almost nil, an unusual deviation from past trends, when there was a stable supply chain maintained for arms. Hamas has been known to manufacture and assemble its weapons locally in the Strip, and this import decline could be a bold measure to curb any slippage into the hands of the group, or a show of proof that Israel isn’t anticipating an escalation anytime soon. 

## Closing the Discussion

Such granular details from global trade data can reveal trade secrets, but cannot capture true sentiments. These insights might lead many to make assumptions that Israel was aware of what was coming, but one cannot simply discount the fact that a nation can be hoping for the best and yet preparing for the worst. Get more such global supply chain insights from [Trademo Intel](https://www.trademo.com/supply-chain-intelligence/intel) to identify global trends and find new opportunities for growing your business.

Learn Israel's trade patterns with the US before and after the war with Hamas and get insights on what products and categories saw spikes or slumps in their imports and exports

Israel-Hamas War - Trade Secrets Before and After the War Started

In an unexpected turn of events, the Panama Canal, a crucial player in the world of global trade, is grappling with a severe drought. Known for connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, the canal now confronts a significant challenge: sending shockwaves through the supply chain industry. This insight sheds light on the far-reaching consequences of the Panama Canal drought on global supply chains. Serving as a vital route for maritime trade, the canal's troubles have a ripple effect, touching shipping companies, manufacturers, retailers, and consumers on a global scale.

 

As a supply chain intelligence provider, it is crucial to unravel the impacts of the ongoing drought in the Panama Canal. The region's lack of rainfall has led to a noticeable drop in water levels, directly affecting the canal's day-to-day operations since August. Ships have to wait in line for days to cross the canal or pay heavier fees to skip in front and avoid delays. Events like the drought and the Red Sea crisis in turn will have effects on the end consumers in terms of longer wait times or increased costs. In a rapidly changing landscape, understanding the challenges posed by nature is crucial. We look at the consequences of the Panama Canal drought using data from Trademo Intel, and examining the shipping schedules and transit times of trade routes relying on the canal to find the increasing number of days it took for cargo to move, from May-Nov 2023.

## Impact on North-South American Trade Route

Analyzing trade data between Chile and the eastern coast of the US, we look at the number of days it took shipments between Miami and San Antonio to complete their journey. This route passes through the Panama Canal and the data was fetched by averaging transit times of more than 30 different shipments. Comparing timelines from May-Nov 2023, it becomes clear there is a substantial increase in transit time, specifically of 32.8%. This number reflects the growing concerns regarding delays in the cross-American trade routes.

![ASEAN sourcing](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1704888033/website/Blog/Panama_insights_2_dzuzfv.webp)

Shipments took roughly 16 days to reach their destination in May-June, and that number has jumped to 21 to 22 days in October-November, signifying the severe impact on global trade. The highest Month-on-Month jump was in September, with a spike of about 15% in transit times. This trend will keep increasing till mid-2024 when the next rainy season hits Panama and until then, will impact raw materials imports to the US from South America, and commodity and finished goods exports the other way around.

## Impact on Asia-America Trade Route

To analyze Trans-Pacific supply chain trends, data from US-Vietnam trade from the Pacific Ocean was considered. A rising graph from August shows the continually delayed shipment transit times between East Asia and the eastern coast of the US. Between May and November, there has been a rise of about 26% in the average shipping timelines. Being a high-priority trade route, the stakes are much higher for shipments traversing through this path.

![ASEAN sourcing](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1704888033/website/Blog/Panama_insights_1_sohuct.webp)

It took almost 50 days for shipments to transit through the Pacific to the New York/Newark area in May-June. This number has risen to over 60 days by November. The highest Month-on-Month jump was in November itself, being around 11%. September and October had a gradual rise of about 4-5% each, proving the droughts have affected the route since August.

## Solutions for the Problem

Global supply chain players should respond to the dynamic situation prompting a collective search for solutions to bolster supply chain resilience in the face of adversity. Rerouting maritime shipments across continents will only add to the cost and delays. An alternative is to move cargo trans-continent between coasts by road, which is still time-consuming and adds to the logistical headache. Another solution is to look for new global buyers and suppliers, which adds weight to the hands of sourcing and business development teams. This is where Trademo Intel provides the hassle-free experience of looking at global markets and supply chains to easily identify alternates. With trade data of more than 1.8 billion shipments across 10 million companies worldwide, drawing deep insights and identifying trends such as this, as well as finding new trade partners and markets becomes easier. See how data from [Trademo Intel](https://www.trademo.com/supply-chain-intelligence/intel) helped unravel interesting insights on the [Israel-Hamas war](https://www.trademo.com/trade-report/global-trade-data/israel-hamas-war-trade-secrets-before-and-after-the-war-started) to learn more ways global supply chain data can shape business landscapes.

Learn how the Panama Canal drought has affected global supply chains with delays and extended transit times and discover how Trademo Intel can help mitigate this problem.

Panama Canal Faces Drought: How Global Supply Chains are on Edge

The recent notice from the U.S. Government i.e. the third joint notice emphasizes some red flags on the US export controls.

While the preceding notices were Russia-centric after Russia's Ukraine invasion, the [latest advisory](https://www.fincen.gov/sites/default/files/shared/FinCEN_Joint_Notice_US_Export_Controls_FINAL508.pdf) broadens the scope, cautioning U.S. institutions about individuals and entities attempting to circumvent U.S. export controls. Issued by the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) and the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), this notice urges vigilance against nation-state adversaries and illicit actors seeking items subject to the EAR (Export Administration Regulations). These technologies could bolster adversaries' military capabilities or facilitate mass surveillance, enabling human rights abuses.

It's imperative for businesses subject to global trade compliance to scrutinize all export transactions, including assessing end-use, end-user, ultimate destination, and item classification. The government is now aiding companies by outlining new red flags for transactions.

## What are these new red flags for the US export controls?

Here are some of the examples which prompt exporters to pause and delve deeper:

- Transactions involving letters of credit consigned to the issuing bank rather than the actual end-user, accompanied by supporting documents that don't specify the actual end-user.

- Engaging with entities having minimal or nonexistent web presence (e.g., lacking a website or domain-based email account).

- Customers withholding or refusing to provide essential details about end-users, intended end-use, or company ownership.

- Transactions linked to phone numbers with country codes differing from the destination country.

- Involvement of parties appearing as ultimate consignees or listed in the "consign to" field but seem like mail centers, trading, or logistics companies.

- The purchased item not aligning with the buyer's line of business.

- Similarity between customer details and those on prescribed parties lists.

- Transactions involving purported civil end-users, yet research suggests a military facility or proximity to one.

- Dealing with companies physically co-located or sharing ownership with entities on prescribed parties lists.

- Using open accounts or lines of credit for payments, particularly concerning known transshipment jurisdictions or items identified as disruptive technology or on the CCL (Commerce Control List).

- Overpayment for an item compared to known market prices.

- Last-minute changes in payment routing, especially diverting from a country of concern through a different country or company.

- Involvement of entities from potential transshipment points or unusual shipping routes.

## How to ensure an effective implementation of this latest notice?

Here are actionable steps to effectively align with this latest announcement on the US export controls:

- Comprehend geopolitical realities and their impact on your business.

- Conduct screening of current partners for restricted parties and end use to assess existing risks.

- If expanding into new markets (e.g., Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan), be diligent in managing requests from these regions.

- Integrate these new red flags into your customer and supplier vetting procedures.

- Consult BIS or Treasury for guidance before engaging in any questionable transactions.

- Update your export program to align with these red flags and the evolving landscape.

Implementing these measures can significantly fortify your business’s defenses against potential risks and ensure compliance with evolving regulations.



Read the joint notice from FinCEN and BIS on the U.S. export controls to learn about the proposed rulemaking and its potential impact on financial institutions.

Joint Notice from FinCEN and BIS on the U.S. Export Controls | Latest News

Joint Notice from FinCEN and BIS on the U.S. Export Controls is imperative for businesses subject to global trade compliance to scrutinize all export transactions, including assessing end-use, end-user, ultimate destination, and item classification. 

Joint Notice from FinCEN and BIS on the U.S. Export Controls

The Departments of Justice, Commerce (through its Bureau of Industry and Security - BIS), Homeland Security (via Homeland Security Investigations - HSI), State (specifically, the Directorate of Defense Trade Controls - DDTC), and the Treasury (comprising the Office of Foreign Assets Control - OFAC) have jointly released a compliance note. This note highlights tactics employed by malicious entities in the maritime and transportation industries, alongside recent enforcement actions taken against suspected violations. This collective endeavor represents the inaugural collaboration among these five agencies, aiming to inform the private sector about enforcement patterns while offering guidance on adhering to U.S. sanctions and export laws. It's worth noting that the Departments of Justice, Commerce, and the Treasury have previously issued two tri-seal compliance notes. 

_“Cargo shipments occur in increasingly complex geopolitical environments, and companies operating in this high-risk space must adhere vigilantly to U.S. sanctions and export control laws,”_ said Assistant Attorney General for National Security Matthew G. Olsen. _“As today’s joint alert makes clear, we will hold accountable companies that do not maintain rigorous compliance programs and violate the law.”_

Deceptive shipping practices are increasingly being employed by Iran and other sanctioned actors in attempting sanctions evasion, as noted by Director Brad Smith of OFAC. It is emphasized that vigilance and the utilization of risk-based compliance measures are required by those operating in the shipping sector to counteract these threats. It is highlighted that engaging with these actors poses risks not only for U.S. companies in terms of civil penalties but also for non-U.S. companies that cause U.S. persons to violate sanctions.

The significance of training, outreach, and information sharing between the federal government and the transportation industry as the primary lines of defense in preventing foreign adversaries from illegally obtaining sensitive U.S. technology for nefarious purposes was stressed by Executive Associate Director Katrina W. Berger of HSI. It is underscored that it is of utmost importance to remain vigilant and work collaboratively to ensure that compliance remains at the forefront of actions, given its critical importance for the nation.

The compliance note outlines diverse deceptive strategies employed by malicious entities in shipping and transportation to enable the unlawful movement of cargo. Moreover, it offers guidance to companies operating within these sectors to establish and reinforce their compliance measures as needed, particularly in high-risk zones or when dealing with partners displaying suspicious conduct. Additionally, the note highlights various compliance practices that could aid companies in detecting potential attempts to circumvent U.S. laws.

The compliance note additionally focuses on the criminal and civil enforcement measures pursued by the pertinent agencies to counter illegal cargo shipments, detailing recent enforcement actions. These instances encompass the Department of Justice's landmark criminal resolution targeting a bareboat charter of a crude oil tanker transporting illicit Iranian oil, alongside civil enforcement actions carried out by BIS and OFAC, imposing civil monetary penalties.

The note emphasizes that companies operating within the maritime or other transportation sectors need to be highly attentive to their compliance endeavors. This attentiveness involves evaluating their risk exposure concerning potential breaches of U.S. sanctions and export laws. Furthermore, it entails establishing robust compliance protocols to minimize these risks and undertaking any essential measures to authenticate the precise nature, source, and destination of the cargo they are responsible for transporting.


Learn about the potential indicators of sanctions evasion and the importance of embracing measures to 'Know Your Cargo' for safe and compliant transport of goods in maritime and other forms of transportation.

Know Your Cargo Compliance Note: Best Practices for Maritime and Transportation Industries

The compliance note outlines diverse deceptive strategies employed by malicious entities in shipping and transportation to enable the unlawful movement of cargo. 

Collective Advisory from DOJ, Commerce, Homeland Security, State, and Treasury for the Maritime and Transportation Sectors on Know-Your-Cargo Policy

## What is Unverified List?

The Unverified List (UVL) is a list  maintained by the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) within the U.S. Department of Commerce. It comprises the names and addresses of foreign individuals or entities engaged in transactions governed by the Export Administration Regulations (EAR), whose legitimacy and adherence to export control regulations could not be confirmed through end-use checks or post-shipment verifications.

Being listed in the Unverified List entails that transactions involving these entities undergo increased scrutiny and are subjected to additional restrictions. Exporters are required to exercise increased caution when engaging with parties on the UVL, which may involve obtaining a statement from them. In certain cases, exporters may also become ineligible for specific license exceptions. The purpose of this list is to mitigate the risk of exported items being diverted to prohibited end uses or end users.

## Latest Additions to Unverified List

On December 19, 2023, the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) within the Department of Commerce issued a [Final Rule](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2023/12/20/2023-27928/additions-to-the-unverified-list#:~:text=SUMMARY%3A,to%20verify%20their%20bona%20fides.) that incorporated 13 new entities into its Unverified List (UVL). These entities are:

- Beijing Jin Sheng Bo Yue Technology Co., Ltd.;
- Beijing Shengbo Xietong Technology Co. Ltd.
- Fulian Precision Electronics (Tianjin) Co. Ltd.
- Guangzhou Xinwei Transportation Co. Ltd.
- Guangzhou Xinyun Intelligent Technology Co. Ltd.
- Nanning Fulian Fu Gui Precision Industrial Co. Ltd.
- Ningbo MOOF Trading Co. Ltd.
- Plexus (Xiamen) Co. Ltd.
- PNC Systems (Jiangsu) Co. Ltd.
- Shenzhen Bozhitongda Technologic Co. Ltd.
- Shenzhen Jia Li Chuang Tech Development Co. Ltd.
- Shenzhen Jingelang Co. Ltd.
- Xi'An Yierda Co. Ltd.          

This list comprises foreign individuals or entities involved in transactions related to the export, reexport, or in-country transfer of items governed by the Export Administration Regulations (EAR). The inclusion of these entities on the UVL stems from BIS's inability to verify their bona fides through end-use checks or post-shipment verifications, raising concerns about the legitimacy of their involvement in such transactions and the potential risk of diversion to prohibited end uses or end users.

All 13 newly added entities are situated in China (listed below), and specific details, including names and addresses, can be found in the Final Rule. These additions took effect on December 19, 2023. Consequently, the use of license exceptions is suspended for transactions involving entities on the UVL. Exporters, re-exporters, and transferors must obtain a UVL statement from parties listed on the UVL before proceeding with relevant transactions. 

However, shipments to these newly designated entities that were already in transit on December 19, 2023, based on actual orders for export, reexport, or in-country transfer to or within a foreign destination, can proceed under the previous eligibility for a License Exception or export, reexport, or transfer without a license (NLR), provided the items were exported from the United States before January 18, 2024.


Explore the latest update as the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) includes 13 entities in the Unverified List.

BIS Adds 13 Entities to Unverified List: Impact on Export Control Compliance

This list comprises foreign individuals or entities involved in transactions related to the export, re-export, or in-country transfer of items governed by the Export Administration Regulations (EAR). 

BIS Adds 13 Entities to Unverified List

During the Budget Day Speech in 2022, the Government declared an increase in the Singapore Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate from 8% to 9%, effective from January 1, 2024.

Consequently, starting January 1, 2024, all imported goods and those released from licensed premises for local consumption after December 31, 2023, will be subject to the new GST rate of 9%.

Importers are advised to ensure clearance of their goods by December 31, 2023, for In-Payment (GST) and In-Payment (Duty and GST) permits, which were obtained at the 8% GST rate.

It is important to note that as of January 1, 2024, requests for extending the validity period of permits will not be accepted for these In-Payment (GST) and In-Payment (Duty and GST) permits obtained at the 8% GST rate.

In cases where an importer has acquired an In-Payment (GST) or In-Payment (Duty and GST) permit at the 8% GST rate but cannot clear the goods by December 31, 2023, the importer can still use the permit after that date, provided it is within the permit validity period. However, the importer must obtain a GST Short-Payment permit ("SPGST" permit) to account for the 1% GST short-payment for the goods prior to cargo clearance.

For the GST Short-payment permit ("SPGST" permit), the importer needs to declare specific information in the permit fields, including Message Type, Declaration Type, Place of Receipt Code, Previous Lot Number (Original TradeNet permit number with GST rate of 8%), HS code, Item CIF/FOB Value, and GST rate (set at 1%).

For In-Payment (GST) and In-Payment (Duty and GST) permits obtained at the 9% GST rate, importers may declare them from December 25, 2023, onwards, if they intend to clear the goods on or after January 1, 2024. This approach aims to minimize the necessity for importers to obtain separate GST Short-Payment permits ("SPGST" permits).

If an importer has obtained an In-Payment (GST) and In-Payment (Duty and GST) permit at the 9% GST rate but clears the goods before January 1, 2024, they may seek a refund of the overpaid 1% GST from Singapore Customs provided they are a non-taxable person. If the importer is a taxable person and the duty/GST was deducted via IBG from their bank account registered with Singapore Customs, they can claim the total GST paid as input tax from the Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore (IRAS).


Explore the details and implications of the revised Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate on imports in Singapore.

Understanding the Implementation of Revised Import GST Rate in Singapore

The importer must obtain a GST Short-Payment permit ("SPGST" permit) to account for the 1% GST short-payment for the goods prior to cargo clearance.

Implementation Of Revised Singapore Import Gst Rate

The United States remains committed to disrupting and exposing arms transfers between the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and Russia. In line with this ongoing effort, the Department of State is imposing sanctions today on one individual and three entities involved in the transfer to Russia and testing of DPRK-origin ballistic missiles by Russia since late November 2023. Additionally, four aircraft owned by the U.S.-designated Command of the Military Transport Aviation (VTA) are being identified as blocked property. These actions are taken under Executive Order (E.O.) 14024, which authorizes sanctions for specified harmful foreign activities of the Government of the Russian Federation.

Under section 1(a)(vii), the following entity is designated for being owned or controlled by, or having acted or purported to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, the Government of the Russian Federation:

Joint Stock Company the 224th Flight Unit State Airlines (224th Flight Unit State Airlines) is a state-owned enterprise that emerged from Russia’s Air Force to provide commercial air cargo transport services. Notably, two previously identified aircraft associated with this entity, bearing tail numbers RA-78817 and RA-82030, are assessed to have been involved in the transfers of DPRK ballistic missiles in late November 2023. 224th Flight Unit State Airlines was previously designated on May 19, 2023, for materially assisting Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner, and several aircraft were identified as blocked property at that time.

Under section 1(a)(iii)(C), an individual is designated for being or having been a leader, official, senior executive officer, or member of the board of directors of 224th Flight Unit State Airlines:

Vladimir Vladimirovich Mikheychik is identified as the General Director of 224th Flight Unit State Airlines.

Under section 1(a)(i), the following entities are designated for operating or having operated in the defense and related materiel sector of the Russian Federation economy:

- Vladimirovka Advanced Weapons and Research Complex (VAWARC) is a Russian military facility involved in missile testing. The weapons-testing complex in western Russia, including facilities, airfields, and missile ranges, was involved in the transfer and testing of DPRK ballistic missiles by Russia in late 2023.
- Ashuluk Firing Range is a Russian missile testing range.
- 
Four aircraft with tail numbers RF-86898, RF-78757, RF-82011, and RF-82041 are identified as blocked property of VTA, and it is assessed that these aircraft were involved in the transfers of DPRK ballistic missiles and missile-related cargo in November and December 2023. VTA was previously designated on December 9, 2022, and October 18, 2023, for operating in the defense sector of the Russian Federation economy and engaging in activities contributing to the supply, sale, or transfer of arms to Iran.

## Implications of these sanctions
As a result of these actions, all property and interests in property of the designated individuals and entities within the United States or in possession or control of U.S. persons are blocked under E.O. 14024. Reporting to the Department of Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is required. Ownership, directly or indirectly, of 50 percent or more by one or more blocked persons also results in a blocking designation. All transactions involving property or interests in property of designated or blocked persons are prohibited unless authorized by OFAC. This includes contributions, provision of funds, goods, or services to or for the benefit of blocked persons, as well as the receipt of any such contributions or services.

It is emphasized that the effectiveness of U.S. government sanctions lies not only in the ability to designate and add persons to the Specially Designated National (SDN) List but also in the willingness to remove persons from the SDN List in accordance with the law. The ultimate goal of sanctions is to bring about positive changes in behavior rather than merely to punish. 



Explore how the United States strategically responds to the transfer and testing of ballistic missiles between North Korea (DPRK) and Russia in this insightful blog post. 


U.S. Actions on DPRK-Russia Ballistic Missile Transfers

Four aircraft with tail numbers RF-86898, RF-78757, RF-82011, and RF-82041 are identified as blocked property of VTA, and it is assessed that these aircraft were involved in the transfers of DPRK ballistic missiles and missile-related cargo in November and December 2023.

 U.S. Response to DPRK-Russia Ballistic Missile Transfers

The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has issued the following General Licenses (GLs) for transactions involving Houthis:

- Counter Terrorism General License 22: Authorizes the provision of agricultural, medicine, and medical equipment, including replacement parts and software.
- Counter Terrorism General License 23: Authorizes transactions related to telecommunications and certain internet-based communications.
- Counter Terrorism General License 24: Authorizes non-commercial, personal remittances.
- Counter Terrorism General License 25: Authorizes transactions related to refined petroleum products in Yemen.
- Counter Terrorism General License 26: Authorizes certain transactions necessary to port and airport operations.

OFAC has also updated the Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) list, adding the following individual:

_PIMENTEL MATA, Alberto (a.k.a. PIMENTEL, Alberto), Guatemala; DOB 26 Oct 1981; POB San Jose, Costa Rica; nationality Guatemala; Gender Male; Passport 238670724 (Guatemala) expires 14 Jan 2024; National ID No. 2386707240101 (Guatemala) (individual) [GLOMAG]. _

Additionally 9 individuals got deleted in the list, as listed below. Read the [official notice here](https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20240117).

- _COMPANIA GUATEMALTECA DE NIQUEL, SOCIEDAD ANONIMA (a.k.a. COMPANIA GUATEMALTECA DE NIQUEL; a.k.a. GUATEMALAN NICKEL COMPANY; a.k.a. "CGN"), 9-55 Avenida Reforma Z.10, Guatemala City, Guatemala; Organization Established Date 22 Jun 1960; NIT # 335886 (Guatemala) [GLOMAG]. 

- "CGN" (a.k.a. COMPANIA GUATEMALTECA DE NIQUEL; a.k.a. COMPANIA GUATEMALTECA DE NIQUEL, SOCIEDAD ANONIMA; a.k.a. GUATEMALAN NICKEL COMPANY), 9-55 Avenida Reforma Z.10, Guatemala City, Guatemala; Organization Established Date 22 Jun 1960; NIT # 335886 (Guatemala) [GLOMAG]. 

- COMPANIA GUATEMALTECA DE NIQUEL (a.k.a. COMPANIA GUATEMALTECA DE NIQUEL, SOCIEDAD ANONIMA; a.k.a. GUATEMALAN NICKEL COMPANY; a.k.a. "CGN"), 9-55 Avenida Reforma Z.10, Guatemala City, Guatemala; Organization Established Date 22 Jun 1960; NIT # 335886 (Guatemala) [GLOMAG]. 

- GUATEMALAN NICKEL COMPANY (a.k.a. COMPANIA GUATEMALTECA DE NIQUEL; a.k.a. COMPANIA GUATEMALTECA DE NIQUEL, SOCIEDAD ANONIMA; a.k.a. "CGN"), 9-55 Avenida Reforma Z.10, Guatemala City, Guatemala; Organization Established Date 22 Jun 1960; NIT # 335886 (Guatemala) [GLOMAG]. 

- COMPANIA PROCESADORA DE NIQUEL DE IZABAL, S.A. (a.k.a. COMPANIA PROCESADORA DE NIQUEL; a.k.a. COMPANIA PROCESADORA DE NIQUEL DE IZABAL, SOCIEDAD ANONIMA; a.k.a. "PRONICO"), 9-55 Avenida Reforma Z.10, Guatemala City, Guatemala; Organization Established Date 03 Sep 2013; NIT # 83557008 (Guatemala) [GLOMAG]. 

- COMPANIA PROCESADORA DE NIQUEL DE IZABAL, SOCIEDAD ANONIMA (a.k.a. COMPANIA PROCESADORA DE NIQUEL; a.k.a. COMPANIA PROCESADORA DE NIQUEL DE IZABAL, S.A.; a.k.a. "PRONICO"), 9-55 Avenida Reforma Z.10, Guatemala City, Guatemala; Organization Established Date 03 Sep 2013; NIT # 83557008 (Guatemala) [GLOMAG]. 

- COMPANIA PROCESADORA DE NIQUEL (a.k.a. COMPANIA PROCESADORA DE NIQUEL DE IZABAL, S.A.; a.k.a. COMPANIA PROCESADORA DE NIQUEL DE IZABAL, SOCIEDAD ANONIMA; a.k.a. "PRONICO"), 9-55 Avenida Reforma Z.10, Guatemala City, Guatemala; Organization Established Date 03 Sep 2013; NIT # 83557008 (Guatemala) [GLOMAG]. 

- "PRONICO" (a.k.a. COMPANIA PROCESADORA DE NIQUEL; a.k.a. COMPANIA PROCESADORA DE NIQUEL DE IZABAL, S.A.; a.k.a. COMPANIA PROCESADORA DE NIQUEL DE IZABAL, SOCIEDAD ANONIMA), 9-55 Avenida Reforma Z.10, Guatemala City, Guatemala; Organization Established Date 03 Sep 2013; NIT # 83557008 (Guatemala) [GLOMAG]. 

- MAYANIQUEL, SOCIEDAD ANONIMA, 12 Calle 2-25 Z.10, Guatemala City, Guatemala; Organization Established Date 03 Oct 1996; NIT # 8252149 (Guatemala) [GLOMAG].
_

Stay updated on the latest OFAC changes: General Licences for Houthis, covering agriculture, medicine, telecom, and refined petroleum products.

OFAC Updates: US Terrorism General Licences and SDN List Changes

US Terrorism General Licences and SDN List Changes

On January 18, the U.S. Treasury Department took decisive action by imposing fresh sanctions with a focus on Russian-related entities. The target this time was the United Arab Emirates-based Hennesea Shipping Company and a fleet of 18 vessels allegedly involved in shipping Russian seaborne oil above the established $60-per-barrel cap set by a U.S.-led international coalition.

In a press release, the Treasury Department, through its Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), identified Hennesea Shipping Company as the "ultimate owner" of the 18 tankers now under scrutiny. The OFAC had previously singled out one specific vessel, the HS Atlantica, for transporting Russian-origin crude oil above the $60 cap while utilizing services from a U.S.-based maritime provider.

The Group of Seven (G7) industrialized nations had initially imposed the price cap on seaborne Russian crude oil in December 2022, responding to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This strategic measure aims to curtail the financial resources available to Russia for its military efforts while maintaining stability in the global oil market.

Effectively, the price cap prohibits various services, including shipping, insurance, and finance, from handling Russian crude oil shipments exceeding the $60 limit. With key shipping and insurance firms predominantly located in G7 countries, the coalition wields significant influence in enforcing the price cap, making it challenging for Moscow to sell its oil at higher prices.

Highlighting the timeline leading to the sanctions, the Treasury Department noted that Hennesea acquired older tankers specifically designed for shipping Russian crude oil and petroleum products just before the price cap went into effect. The department also emphasized that vessels "ultimately owned" by Hennesea had consistently made port calls at Russian ports.

In response to these activities, the Treasury Department's sanctions against Hennesea include measures to block the company from engaging in dollar-based transactions, effectively placing it on the Specially Designated Nationals list.
Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo underscored the coalition's unwavering commitment to enforcing the price cap, stating, "Today’s actions once again demonstrate that anyone who violates the price cap will face the consequences. No one should doubt our coalition's commitment to stopping those who help the Kremlin."

The Price Cap Coalition, inclusive of the European Union and Australia, recently announced modifications to its compliance regime. According to the Treasury Department, these changes are designed to make it more challenging for Russian exporters to circumvent the price cap. The coalition intends to require Western maritime service providers to obtain "attestations" from other businesses, confirming that the Russian oil was sold within the established cap, each time they lift or load the oil.








Explore the latest developments as the U.S. Treasury Department targets the United Arab Emirates-based Hennesea Shipping Company and 18 vessels for alleged violations of the Russian seaborne oil price cap.

U.S. Treasury Imposes Sanctions on UAE Shipping Company Over Violations of Russian Oil Price Cap

Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo emphasizes the coalition's commitment, while recent changes aim to tighten compliance against Russian exporters. 

United States sanctions a UAE shipping company for breaching the price cap on Russian oil

The U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has imposed sanctions on key officials of the Ansarallah forces, commonly known as the Houthis, for their support of acts of terrorism targeting commercial shipping. The sanctions target four individuals who have supported the Houthis' recent attacks against commercial vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, including holding civilian crews hostage. The United Kingdom has also imposed sanctions on these key figures of Houthi forces.

Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian E. Nelson stated, "The Houthis' persistent terrorist attacks on merchant vessels and their civilian crews lawfully transiting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden threaten to disrupt international supply chains and the freedom of navigation, which is critical to global security, stability, and prosperity."

On January 17, 2024, the U.S. Department of State announced the designation of Ansarallah as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT), effective February 16, 2024. The OFAC designation of Houthi forces officials, taken in advance of the effective date of the designation of Ansarallah, serves to further promote accountability for the group's recent terrorist attacks.


The following entries have been added to the Consolidated List and are now subject to an asset freeze: 

1. AL-ATIFI, Mohamed Nasser Name (non-Latin script): نارصالعاطف محمد DOB: --/--/1969. a.k.a: AL-ATIFI, Nasser Nationality: Yemen Position: Houthi Defence Minister Other Information: (UK Sanctions List Ref):YEM0014. (UK Statement of Reasons): Mohamed alAtifi, in his role of Houthi Defence Minister, is and has been involved in acts which threaten the peace, security and stability of Yemen, namely supporting, promoting and authorising or directing attacks against shipping in the Red Sea. Listed on: 25/01/2024 UK Sanctions List Date Designated: 25/01/2024 Last Updated: 25/01/2024 Group ID: 16346. 

2. AL-NABI, Muhammad Fadl Abd Name (non-Latin script): ب محمد فضل عبد الن a.k.a: ABDULNABI, Muhammad, Fadl Position: Commander of Houthi Naval Forces Other Information: (UK Sanctions List Ref):YEM0017. (UK Statement of Reasons): Muhammad Fadl Abd Al-NABI, in his role as Commander of Houthi Naval Forces is and has been involved in acts which threaten the peace, security and stability of Yemen, namely being responsible for and engaging in attacks against shipping in the Red Sea. Listed on: 25/01/2024 UK Sanctions List Date Designated: 25/01/2024 Last Updated: 25/01/2024 Group ID: 16349. 

3. AL-QADARI, Muhammad Ali Name (non-Latin script): ي حمد ل ع القادر Nationality: Yemen Position: (1) Director of Houthi Naval College (2) Houthi Coastal Defence Force Chief (3) Major General Other Information: (UK Sanctions List Ref):YEM0016. (UK Statement of Reasons):Muhamed Ali al-Qadiri, in his role of Chief of the Houthi Coastal Defence Force, is and has been involved in acts which threaten the peace, security and stability of Yemen, namely promoting and directing or otherwise being responsible for and engaging in attacks against shipping in the Red Sea. These attacks undermine the peace process and stability in Yemen. Listed on: 25/01/2024 UK Sanctions List Date Designated: 25/01/2024 Last Updated: 25/01/2024 Group ID: 16348. 

4. AL-TALIBI, Muhammad Ahmad Name (non-Latin script): ب محمد أحمد الطال a.k.a: AL-TALBI, Abu, Jaafar Other Information: (UK Sanctions List Ref):YEM0015. (UK Statement of Reasons): Muhammad Ahmad al-Talibi, in his role as Assistant Minister of Defence for Logistics and Director of the Procurement Department is and has been involved in acts which threaten the peace, security and stability of Yemen, namely by providing support for and promoting attacks against shipping in the Red Sea. Listed on: 25/01/2024 UK Sanctions List Date Designated: 25/01/2024 Last Updated: 25/01/2024 Group ID: 16347.

## Sanctions on Houthis - Implications

As a result of these sanctions, all property and interests in property of the designated persons that are in the United States or in the possession or control of U.S. persons are blocked and must be reported to OFAC. In addition, any entities that are owned, directly or indirectly, individually or in the aggregate, 50 percent or more by one or more blocked persons are also blocked. Unless authorized by a general or specific license issued by OFAC, or exempt, OFAC's regulations generally prohibit all transactions by U.S. persons or within (or transiting) the United States that involve any property or interests in property of designated or otherwise blocked persons.

Non-U.S. financial institutions and other persons that engage in certain transactions or activities with sanctioned entities and individuals may expose themselves to sanctions risk or be subject to an enforcement action. The prohibitions include the making of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services by, to, or for the benefit of any designated person, or the receipt of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services from any such person.


Explore the coordinated efforts of the United States and the United Kingdom as they target Houthi military officials.

Joint U.S. and UK Action Targets Houthi Military Officials

The sanctions target four individuals who have supported the Houthis' recent attacks against commercial vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, including holding civilian crews hostage. The United Kingdom has also imposed sanctions on these key figures of Houthi forces.

U.S. and UK Target Houthi Military Officials

The U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has imposed sanctions on three entities and one individual in Lebanon and Turkey. These sanctions are in response to their provision of critical financial support to an Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF) and Hezbollah financial network. These entities have generated significant revenue, totaling hundreds of millions of dollars, from the sale of Iranian commodities, including to the Syrian government. The funds derived from these commodity sales serve as a primary source of funding for the continued terrorist activities of the IRGC-QF and Hezbollah, supporting other terrorist organizations in the region.

Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian E. Nelson emphasized the commitment to preventing the exploitation of the international trading system by the IRGC-QF and its proxy terrorist groups. The United States will continue taking action to expose and disrupt these illicit schemes.

## Hizballah and IRGC-QF Financial Fronts:

### 1. Mira Ihracat Ithalat Petrol (Mira):

Mira, based in Turkey, engages in purchasing, transporting, and selling Iranian commodities globally. Overseen by Iran-based Hizballah finance facilitator Ali Qasir, Mira's profits from commodity sales are shared with Hizballah. Key figures like Muhammad Qasir and Muhammad Amir Alchwiki utilize Mira for commercial activities. Ibrahim Talal al-Uwayr, alias Ibrahim Agaoglu, serves as the CEO and owner, collaborating with others to direct Mira's trading activities.

**Sanction Designation**: Mira Ihracat Ithalat Petrol is designated under E.O. 13224 for materially assisting, sponsoring, or providing support to Hizballah. Ibrahim Talal al-Uwayr is designated under the same order for owning or controlling Mira. Ali Qasir was previously designated under E.O. 13224 in September 2019 and September 2021.

### 2. Yara Offshore SAL:

Yara, based in Lebanon, is affiliated with Hizballah and has facilitated large sales of Iranian commodities to the Syrian regime, receiving millions in payment. Yara also conducted transactions on behalf of U.S.-designated Hizballah and IRGC-QF front company Concepto Screen S.A.L.

**Sanction Designation:** Yara Offshore SAL is designated under E.O. 13224 for materially assisting, sponsoring, or providing support to Hizballah.

### 3. Hydro Company for Drilling Equipment Rental (Hydro):

Hydro, based in Lebanon, is involved in financing the IRGC-QF by facilitating the shipment of Iranian commodities worth hundreds of millions of dollars to Syria. It operates under the direction of senior IRGC-QF officers and maintains commercial ties with U.S.-designated Hizballah and IRGC-QF front company Concepto Screen S.A.L.

**Sanction Designation:** Hydro Company for Drilling Equipment Rental is designated under E.O. 13224 for materially assisting, sponsoring, or providing support to the IRGC-QF.

## Sanctions Implications:
As a result of OFAC's action, all property and interests in property of the designated individuals and entities within the United States or in the possession or control of U.S. persons are blocked and must be reported to OFAC. Entities owned 50 percent or more, directly or indirectly, by blocked persons are also blocked. OFAC's regulations generally prohibit transactions involving the property or interests in property of designated or otherwise blocked persons, unless authorized by a license issued by OFAC or exempt. Non-U.S. financial institutions and other entities engaging in certain transactions with sanctioned entities and individuals may expose themselves to sanctions or enforcement actions. Prohibitions include making contributions or providing funds, goods, or services to or for the benefit of any designated person, or receiving such contributions or provisions from any such person.

Stay informed on the latest developments as the U.S. Treasury imposes sanctions on the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF) and Hizballah's financial network. 

U.S. Treasury Sanctions Iranian IRGC-QF and Hizballah Financial Network

Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian E. Nelson emphasized the commitment to preventing the exploitation of the international trading system by the IRGC-QF and its proxy terrorist groups. 

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP, is a monumental free trade agreement (FTA) signed by 15 Asia-Pacific nations in November 2020. It officially came into effect in January 2022 for 10 initial members, marking a significant milestone in regional economic integration. Encompassing roughly 30% of the world's population and GDP, the RCEP stands as the largest trade bloc globally, presenting a game-changer for the participating nations, namely Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.

With its core objectives aligned to eliminate tariffs on most goods traded between member countries, simplifying customs procedures and regulations, standardizing rules and regulations for trade and investment, and boosting economic growth and development across the region, we take a look at the Philippines' import and export trends with the RCEP members two years into its implementation.

## Philippines' Import Trends

With the RCEP partners comprising over 55% of the Philippines' imports, it represents more than half of the country’s inward trade. This mostly consisted of China, Japan, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea, Indonesia, and Vietnam.

![Philippines Imports](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1706879715/website/Blog/ph_imports_tkn7mc.png)

Since the inception of the RCEP, the average shipment count has increased from 1.16 million to 1.41 million, and the largest Quarter-on-Quarter rise was in Q3 of 2022 at 15.4%. The Year-on-Year trends show a rise of 18.3% for 2022 and 5.3% for 2023 in shipment count.

## Philippines' Export Trends

The RCEP partners accounted for nearly two-thirds of exports for the Philippines, at 64% of total shipments. The majority of RCEP countries that shipments were exported to were Japan, China, Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia.


![Philippines Exports](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1706879715/website/Blog/ph_exports_iez5ic.png)

The average shipment count went up from 362.3 thousand shipments to 415.7 thousand shipments after the RCEP came into effect, with the biggest spike in Q3 of 2023 at 11.3%. The Year-on-Year shipment count had a rise of 7.9% in 2022 and 12.6% in 2023.

## Conclusion

While the RCEP has had a significant impact on imports and exports of the Philippines, this could have many positive and negative consequences on the country’s economy. The RCEP promotes gradual tariff elimination on up to 90% of traded goods within the bloc over 15-20 years. This makes Philippine exports like electronics, agricultural products, and processed food more competitive in regional markets. Also, the deeper economic integration will lead to stronger regional supply chains, benefiting Philippine manufacturers reliant on imported components. This will also lead to lower prices for consumers due to reduced tariffs and increased competition.

On the contrary, tariff reductions also exposed some Philippine industries to increased competition from cheaper imports, potentially harming domestic producers, as some critics argue that the RCEP could disproportionately benefit China, the region's largest economy, raising concerns about fair competition and market access. These certain sectors, particularly those less competitive, could face increasing job losses due to import competition. The RCEP's long-term impact will depend on how effectively these issues are managed by the Philippines' government in the years to come.

Learn how the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership has impacted the Philippines' imports and exports and what are the potential benefits and consequences.

Philippines' Shifting Global Trade Trends: The RCEP Effect

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between 15 Asia-Pacific nations. The participating nations include the ten member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) – Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam – along with five of their key trading partners: Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea. Signed in 2020 and entering into effect in 2022 for most members, it's the world's largest trade bloc by combined GDP, encompassing about 30% of the global population and economic output. RCEP aims to eliminate most tariffs on goods traded between member countries, establish common rules for areas like e-commerce and intellectual property, and boost economic cooperation within the region.


The RCEP is notable for its inclusivity and significance in fostering regional integration, providing member countries with a platform to enhance economic collaboration, strengthen supply chains, and promote sustainable development across diverse sectors. We take a look at Vietnam’s import and export trends with the partner nations before and after the RCEP came into effect.

## Vietnam’s Import Trends

With the RCEP partners comprising over 79% of Vietnam’s imports, it represents more than three-quarters of the country’s inward trade. This mostly consisted of China, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia.

![Vietnam Imports](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1706879715/website/Blog/vn_imports_ryidx1.png)

Since the inception of the RCEP, the average shipment count has increased from 8.76 million to 9.46 million, and the largest Quarter-on-Quarter rise was in Q4 of 2022 at 23.1%. The Year-on-Year trends show a fall of 10.58% for 2022 and a rise of 16.63% for 2023 in shipment count, while the overall rise stands at 4.3%.

## Vietnam’s Export Trends
 

The RCEP partners accounted for nearly half of exports for Vietnam, at 56.7% of total shipments. The majority of RCEP countries that shipments were exported to were Japan, South Korea, Singapore, China, Thailand, Australia, Malaysia, and Indonesia.

![Vietnam Exports](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1706879715/website/Blog/vn_exports_pbfhqk.png)

The average shipment count went up from 5.9 million shipments to 6.5 million shipments after the RCEP came into effect, with the biggest spike in Q4 of 2022 at 29.7%. The Year-on-Year shipment count had a fall of 5% in 2022 and a rise of 9% in 2023, with an overall percentage increase of 3.5%.

## Conclusion
 

While the RCEP has had a significant impact on the imports and exports of Vietnam in the year 2023, this could have many positive and negative consequences on the country’s economy. The RCEP promotes gradual tariff elimination on up to 90% of traded goods within the bloc over 15-20 years. This makes Vietnamese exports like electronics, machinery, and textiles more competitive in regional markets. Also, the deeper economic integration will lead to stronger regional supply chains, benefiting Vietnamese manufacturers reliant on imported components such as integrated circuits, machinery equipment, iron and steel, and chemicals. This will also lead to lower prices for consumers due to reduced tariffs and increased competition and trade. Vietnam will also benefit from the increased market access to over 2 billion consumers, offering new opportunities for its businesses. All this can also boost foreign direct investment (FDI), particularly in export-oriented sectors.

On the contrary, tariff reductions also exposed some Vietnamese industries to increased competition from cheaper imports, potentially harming domestic producers. Vietnam is also in a trade deficit with RCEP partners, and this could further increase with time. Certain sectors, particularly those less competitive, could face increasing job losses due to import competition, and require capacity building to adapt to the new trade environment. Overall, RCEP presents a significant opportunity for Vietnam's trade and economic growth. However, realizing these benefits will require addressing potential challenges and ensuring businesses are equipped to navigate the new trade landscape.

Learn how the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership has impacted Vietnam's imports and exports and what are the potential benefits and consequences.

Vietnam's Shifting Global Trade Trends: The RCEP Effect

## Quick Summary

China is a major producer of several metals. A significant and recurring argument against China's metal exports is the accusation of government subsidies that artificially lower production costs. This allows Chinese producers to undercut competitors in the global market. Additionally, China's massive steel production capacity has now raised concerns about a global surplus, further pressuring prices and potentially harming other steel-producing nations.

Currently, there's a drop in demand in the Chinese domestic market, and they are exporting their problem to reduce surpluses and maintain profits. This low blow, in turn, is having catastrophic consequences for the import markets. Continue reading till the end to understand the gravity of the situation and learn what businesses should do to stay ahead of these hostile tactics.

## China’s Slowing Economy

China's economic engine, once a roaring powerhouse, is undeniably experiencing a slowdown. The breakneck growth rates that defined China's past few decades are becoming a thing of the past. China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate has been steadily declining. From a stellar 8.4% in 2021, it dipped to 5.2% in 2023. Moreover, the International Monetary Fund predicts the Chinese economy will slow over the next four years. This represents a significant shift, and forecasts for 2024 predict a further deceleration, with estimates ranging from 4.3% to 4.6%. These numbers, while still positive growth by global standards, reflect a maturing economy facing new challenges.

Several factors are contributing to dampening China's economic momentum. One major concern is the ongoing crisis in the real estate sector, a critical pillar of the Chinese economy. Property investment has plummeted, and major developers are grappling with defaults, creating a ripple effect throughout the financial system. This caused most construction activity, a major consumer of these metals, to drop significantly. This real estate slowdown significantly impacted industries like steel and aluminum. Steel mills faced overcapacity and declining prices. This situation further exacerbated the economic slowdown, creating a vicious cycle.

Furthermore, China's past relied heavily on large-scale infrastructure projects to fuel economic growth. These projects were massive consumers of steel and aluminum. However, the government's focus seems to be evolving towards more targeted infrastructure spending and investments in technological innovation. While some infrastructure development will continue, the sheer volume of steel and iron ore needed might be lower compared to the boom years. The country is aiming to transition its industrial base towards high-tech industries and cleaner energy sources. These sectors typically require less steel and aluminum compared to traditional heavy industries like manufacturing and construction. 

## China’s History With Dumping

The term "dumping" typically refers to selling a product in a foreign market at a price lower than its fair value in the domestic market. This can harm domestic producers in other countries and distort global markets. China has been accused of dumping steel and aluminum in the past, potentially harming producers in other countries. Today, there is a growing consensus that China dumping metals through exports ss a way to mitigate its diminishing domestic demand for such metals.

Several instances exist where China has been accused of steel and aluminum dumping. Here are a couple of examples:

- **2016:** The US Department of Commerce imposed anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties on corrosion-resistant steel (CORE) from China, alleging China was selling it below market value. This move aimed to protect American steel producers.

- **2017:** Countries haven't solely relied on tariffs to address China's metal exports. That is what Canada did, imposed quotas on certain steel imports from China in an attempt to manage import volumes and protect its own steel producers.

- **2021:** The European Union (EU) imposed safeguard measures on specific steel products from China to shield its domestic industry from a surge of imports that could potentially cause harm.

- **2023:** The US Department of Commerce initiated an anti-dumping investigation into tin-plated steel imports from China. This investigation stemmed from a petition by a US steelmaker alleging China was dumping cheap tin plates in the US market. The US Commerce Department announced the highest preliminary anti-dumping duties imposed on tin mill steel imported from China, at a staggering 122.5%.

 

## Ongoing Probes by Brazil and India

When a country suspects another nation (China) is dumping a product (steel or aluminum) in its market, it can initiate an anti-dumping investigation. These probes investigate whether the alleged price difference is harming domestic producers in the importing country (Brazil or India in this case).

In 2023, Brazil's industry ministry became particularly active in launching anti-dumping probes on various industrial products from China. These products included steel products (metal sheets and pre-painted steel), chemicals, and tires. This surge in probes reflects concerns in Brazil about a potential wave of cheap Chinese imports harming Brazilian manufacturers. A flooded market with inexpensive Chinese goods could lead to lost sales and lower profits for Brazilian producers, potentially weakening the domestic steel and aluminum industries.

India has also initiated anti-dumping probes to address concerns over Chinese imports. A recent example is the investigation launched in 2023 into aluminum foil imports from China. This probe resulted from a complaint filed by domestic aluminum foil producers who claim China is dumping the product at unfairly low prices.

 ![India Aluminum Foil Imports](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1711964001/website/Blog/india_aluminum_foil_imports_lvov3t.png)


From the above graph taken using [Trademo Intel](https://www.trademo.com/supply-chain-intelligence/intel), the trend line representing aluminum foil imports in India from China clearly shows a sharp increase in the number of shipments in 2023. This spike in imports is easy to highlight when transactional shipment data is leveraged to identify such trends. 

If the investigations in Brazil and India find such evidence of dumping and determine it's harming domestic industries, these countries can impose anti-dumping duties on specific Chinese products. These duties act essentially as a tax on imported goods, increasing the landed cost of these Chinese products in Brazil and India. This price hike would make these Chinese products less competitive with domestic alternatives, potentially providing some relief to Brazilian and Indian producers.

## Probes by Mexico and Vietnam Next?
 

Earlier highlighted by Vietnamese producers, China is exporting an increasing amount of aluminum and steel into their country. Although no substantial data has been released publicly to prove this, looking at Vietnam’s imports of aluminum and steel from China, a growing trend can be clearly seen on Trademo Intel.

 
 ![Vietnam Imports From China](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1711964001/website/Blog/vietnam_aluminum_and_steel_imports_from_china_uq5ele.png)
 

Also, based on current information, Vietnam hasn't launched any high-profile anti-dumping investigations against China in 2023 or early 2024. This might be due to several reasons. Vietnam and China are close trading partners, both being members of the [Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)](https://www.trademo.com/insight/vietnam-shifting-global-trade-trends-the-rcep-effect?value=37) and Vietnam itself is a developing nation looking to attract foreign investment. Initiating an anti-dumping probe against China could potentially disrupt this economic relationship. Vietnam might address concerns about Chinese imports through other means. Perhaps engaging in discussions with China to negotiate fairer trade practices or implementing safeguard measures to manage import volumes of specific goods are possibilities.

 

Although Mexico's Ministry of Economy launched an anti-dumping investigation into flat-coated steel imports from China in 2023, there might be a growing issue that is still not addressed. This anti-dumping probe stemmed from a complaint filed by Mexican steelmakers, Ternium México and Tenigal, alleging that China was dumping flat steel in Mexico at significantly lower prices, harming domestic producers. The Mexican investigation aimed to determine if the alleged price difference constituted dumping and whether it caused injury to the Mexican steel industry. This involved gathering data on steel prices in both China and Mexico, production and shipment volumes, and potential job losses in Mexican steel companies.

Unfortunately, unless pointed out by large industry players, these problems are not highlighted, and neither are probes initiated. Even the means to identify such dumping tactics are difficult to achieve unless a supply chain intelligence platform is leveraged. Perhaps because of this, a huge spike in iron and steel imports in forms other than flat or rolled into Mexico from China has gone unnoticed by Mexican producers and the government. This includes scrap, molds, wires, rods, and bars.

![Mexico Iron & Steel Imports Comparision](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1711964001/website/Blog/mexico_iron_and_steel_imports_myavzu.png)

When compared against global imports of such goods, Trademo Intel clearly shows the trendline of Chinese shipments rising and settling at an average that is at least five times higher than before the dumping started. A price difference is also noticeable where such shipments from China are 20–25% cheaper than others, mainly from the United States. This will and probably has affected the iron and steel business in Mexico, and it will take months of recurring revenue decline before realization or any action being taken to investigate.
 

## What Should Be Done?
 

Companies can identify potential dumping practices by China (or any other country) through a combination of monitoring and analysis. 

- **Track Market Prices:** Companies should closely monitor the market prices of the goods they compete with, particularly those originating from China. This involves tracking both domestic and international prices. Significant price discrepancies, especially when Chinese prices are consistently lower than the fair market value in China itself, can be a red flag.

- **Compare Prices Across Markets:** Companies can compare the prices of Chinese goods in their own market to the prices of those same goods in other markets, including China's domestic market. Significant price differences can suggest potential dumping practices.

- **Import Statistics:** Companies can analyze import data to track import volumes of specific goods from China. A sudden surge in imports, particularly if accompanied by lower prices, could be a sign of dumping.

- **Gathering Evidence:** Building a strong case for dumping requires solid evidence. Companies should document their findings meticulously, including price data, import statistics, and any indications of below-cost selling by Chinese companies.

[Trademo Intel](https://www.trademo.com/supply-chain-intelligence/intel) provides businesses with these advantages, ensuring early signs are discovered, analyzed, documented, and shared. This article relied on information from the platform to substantiate such findings and also identify a potential dumping practice by China currently ongoing yet unidentified in Mexico. By employing these strategies, companies too can become more vigilant in identifying potential dumping practices and take appropriate action to protect their own interests. [Get in touch](https://www.trademo.com/get-in-touch?type=Intel&location=china-insights) to learn how such trends can be spotted in any industry within minutes, transforming how businesses mitigate such risks today and stay ahead tomorrow.

China's falling demand for heavy metals has raised concerns about a global surplus, pressuring prices & harming other nations. Read our insight to learn what measures businesses should take.

What Should Be Done: China's Slowing Economy Is Affecting Businesses Globally

With Trademo Intel, you can find insights like these to study & analyze global shipping data, find new trade opportunities for your business, and take data-driven decisions to optimize your supply chains.

In recent updates from A.P. Møller-Maersk, the company has made significant adjustments to its 2024 financial guidance due to strong market demand and disruptions in the Red Sea. Here's a comprehensive summary:

## Maersk's Financial Performance and Market Conditions

**Guidance Update:** Maersk has upgraded its full-year guidance for 2024, now expecting an underlying EBITDA of USD 9 to 11bn and EBIT of USD 3 to 5bn (previously USD 7 to 9bn and USD 1 to 3bn, respectively), significantly higher than previous forecasts. The adjustment is attributed to robust container market demand and the impact of ongoing disruptions in the Red Sea, which have led to increased freight rates and port congestion, particularly in Asia and the Middle East.

**Market Dynamics:** The container transport market has experienced notable changes, driven by a combination of strong demand and supply chain disruptions. Factors such as missed sailings, longer routes, equipment shortages, and delays have contributed to a supply-demand imbalance, pushing freight rates higher. The crisis in the Red Sea, including threats to commercial vessels, has exacerbated these issues, indicating that stability may not return soon.

## Specific Developments Impacting Maersk

### Red Sea Disruptions
The ongoing conflict in the Red Sea has significantly impacted shipping routes, causing increased congestion at key ports. This has led to delays and higher operational costs. The disruptions are expected to continue influencing market conditions, with potential long-term effects on global supply chains.

### Demand Surge
Global demand for container transport remains strong, with various regions experiencing price increases. This surge in demand, coupled with limited supply due to the aforementioned disruptions, has created a favorable environment for higher freight rates. This trend has been particularly evident since April and May, following a stable first quarter.

The same can be seen via the [global trade data](https://www.trademo.com/supply-chain-intelligence/intel) platform Intel, which shows an increase in Maersk's shipping volumes in US imports since Q2.

![Maersk's 2023 Q2 Shipping Volumes](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1723033744/website/Blog/maersk_shipments_xuhgzj.webp)

## Financial Projections and Strategic Responses

**Revised Financial Projections:** In response to these market conditions, Maersk has revised its financial projections upwards. The company now expects stronger financial performance in the second half of 2024, driven by continued high demand and elevated freight rates. Free cash flow is projected to be at least USD 1 billion, a significant improvement from previous expectations.

**Strategic Initiatives:** To manage the challenges and capitalize on opportunities, Maersk is likely to focus on enhancing its operational efficiency and expanding capacity where possible. The company is also investing in new technologies and green initiatives to meet its long-term sustainability goals. These efforts aim to ensure resilience and competitiveness in a volatile market.

## Conclusion

Maersk's recent guidance update reflects the dynamic nature of the global shipping industry. The company's proactive approach to navigating supply chain disruptions and leveraging market demand highlights its strategic agility. As Maersk continues to adapt to these challenges, its financial outlook remains positive, underscoring the importance of robust planning and execution in the face of global uncertainties. Here are five [challenges faced by shipping companies](https://www.trademo.com/blog/challenges-and-solutions-for-shipping-companies) and their solutions that help better understand the need for planning and optimization.


Learn how strong market demand and disruptions in the Red Sea propelled Maersk's adjustments to 2024 financial guidance.

Maersk Issues New Trading Update for 2024

Learn Why Maersk Issued New Update for 2024

As Hurricane Ernesto barrels through the Atlantic, its effects are rippling far beyond the immediate devastation in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, impacting U.S. trade and economic stability. With Puerto Rico still reeling from extensive power outages, the hurricane's aftermath threatens to disrupt the flow of goods, particularly in sectors heavily dependent on maritime routes and imports from the Caribbean.

## Immediate Disruptions in Maritime Trade 

Puerto Rico, a critical hub for U.S. maritime trade, especially in the pharmaceutical, electronics, and agricultural sectors, has been significantly affected by Ernesto. The hurricane’s strong winds and torrential rains have caused widespread flooding and power outages, leading to the temporary shutdown of major ports. This has delayed shipments and disrupted supply chains, particularly for time-sensitive goods. The U.S. relies heavily on Puerto Rico for the import of medical supplies and pharmaceutical products, and these disruptions could lead to shortages and increased prices in the mainland market.

The ripple effects are also being felt along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard, where ports are bracing for rough seas and high winds as Ernesto moves closer to Bermuda. Coastal communities from Florida to Maine are experiencing dangerous surf conditions, which are expected to worsen over the weekend. This has forced several ports to either limit operations or prepare for temporary closures, further delaying shipments.

## Disruption to Shipping Routes

One of the most immediate impacts of Hurricane Ernesto has been the disruption of key shipping routes in the Caribbean. Puerto Rico, often referred to as the "gateway to the Caribbean," is a crucial hub for goods moving between the U.S. mainland and other Caribbean nations. The closure of ports in Puerto Rico due to the storm has forced ships to reroute or delay their journeys, causing a backlog in the transportation of goods.

This disruption is particularly concerning for industries that rely on just-in-time delivery systems, such as the automotive and electronics sectors. Delays in the arrival of components and finished products could lead to production slowdowns and shortages on the U.S. mainland, particularly in the southeastern states, which are heavily reliant on Caribbean trade.

## Damage to Port Infrastructure

In addition to the disruption of shipping routes, the damage caused by Hurricane Ernesto to port infrastructure in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands could have long-lasting effects on U.S. trade. The ports in these regions are critical for the import and export of goods, including pharmaceuticals, textiles, and agricultural products.

Early reports suggest that several ports in Puerto Rico have sustained significant damage, with cranes and warehouses either destroyed or severely damaged by the storm. The time and cost required to repair this infrastructure could lead to a prolonged decrease in trade capacity, further exacerbating supply chain issues that have already been strained by global economic challenges.

## Impact on Agriculture

In the agricultural sector, Puerto Rico's role as a key exporter of tropical fruits and other perishable goods to the U.S. has been compromised. Flooded farmlands and disrupted transportation networks mean that these products are unlikely to reach the mainland market in their usual quantities, leading to price hikes and potential shortages. Moreover, the hurricane’s impact on maritime routes means that imported agricultural products, particularly from Latin America, could also face delays, exacerbating supply chain issues.

## Economic Repercussions

The broader economic impact of Hurricane Ernesto on U.S. trade is likely to be felt in the coming weeks and months. The immediate disruptions to shipping and energy supply chains could lead to increased costs for businesses, particularly in sectors that rely on just-in-time delivery systems. The construction industry, which depends on the timely arrival of materials from the Caribbean, is also likely to face delays, driving up project costs and timelines.

Furthermore, the uncertainty surrounding the storm’s trajectory has led to fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly in the oil and gas markets. As traders anticipate potential disruptions to energy production and transport, prices have begun to rise, putting additional pressure on consumers and businesses alike.

## Long-Term Considerations

In the long term, Hurricane Ernesto underscores the vulnerability of U.S. trade infrastructure to extreme weather events. The increasing frequency and intensity of hurricanes, likely driven by climate change, pose a significant risk to the stability of global supply chains. This has prompted calls for greater investment in resilient infrastructure, both in the U.S. and in key trading partners like Puerto Rico.

Moreover, the storm has highlighted the importance of diversified supply chains. As businesses grapple with the immediate disruptions caused by Ernesto, there is likely to be a renewed focus on sourcing goods from multiple regions to mitigate the impact of future hurricanes.

As Hurricane Ernesto barrels through the Atlantic, its effects are rippling far beyond Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, impacting U.S. trade and economic stability.

Hurricane Ernesto's Impact on US Trade

Bangladesh’s ongoing political instability has created significant challenges for its export sector, particularly its crucial trade relationships with the USA and Europe. The primary exports to these regions are textiles and garments, which form the backbone of Bangladesh's economy. As political unrest escalates, the effects on supply chains, trade agreements, and market confidence are becoming more pronounced. This analysis highlights the current situation and its effects on these key markets.

## Current Situation: Impact of Ongoing Political Instability

### Heightened Protests and Strikes

Political unrest has intensified in recent months due to upcoming national elections. Heightened protests and violent clashes have disrupted manufacturing hubs, particularly in Dhaka and Chittagong, leading to temporary factory shutdowns. These disruptions have created a backlog in production, affecting international orders for textiles and garments, which make up over 80% of Bangladesh’s exports.

### Supply Chain Disruptions

Road blockades, strikes, and protests have caused significant delays in the shipment of goods, particularly textiles and garments, to ports for export. These disruptions have affected retailers in the USA and Europe, who rely on just-in-time inventory models. The delays have led to missed deadlines, which in turn, increase costs for retailers and weaken buyer confidence.

### Escalating Labor Conflicts

Rising inflation and political unrest have contributed to increasing tensions between labor unions and factory management. Workers are demanding higher wages to cope with the rising cost of living, leading to sporadic strikes across the garment industry. This has further disrupted production schedules, straining Bangladesh’s relationships with its global buyers in both the USA and Europe.

### Impact on Trade Agreements

The USA and Europe are closely monitoring the political situation in Bangladesh. There is growing concern that prolonged instability could lead to a review of trade privileges, such as the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), which provides duty-free access to certain Bangladeshi products. A reduction or loss of these privileges could severely impact Bangladesh's competitive position in global markets.

### Buyer Reluctance and Diversification

American and European buyers are expressing concerns over the reliability of supply chains from Bangladesh. In response to these risks, some buyers are exploring alternative sourcing options in neighboring countries such as India, Vietnam, and Cambodia. If instability persists, this trend could result in long-term reductions in Bangladesh’s export volumes to these key markets.

### Currency Volatility

The ongoing political instability has led to increased volatility in the Bangladeshi Taka, complicating pricing and contract negotiations for exporters. This uncertainty further diminishes confidence among international buyers, making it difficult for Bangladesh to maintain its market position.

### Factory Safety and Compliance Concerns

The ongoing unrest has exacerbated concerns regarding factory safety and labor compliance. International buyers, particularly from Europe, are increasingly scrutinizing labor conditions in Bangladeshi factories. Failure to meet labor and environmental standards could result in boycotts or stricter compliance requirements, threatening Bangladesh’s access to these markets.

## Sector-Specific Impacts

### Textiles and Garments

Both the USA and Europe are significant markets for Bangladesh’s textiles and garments, which form the bulk of its exports. In the USA, delays and increased costs affect retail operations and consumer satisfaction, as buyers are forced to contend with unreliable supply chains. In Europe, disruptions impact fashion cycles and compliance with stringent labor and environmental standards. European buyers, in particular, are wary of labor conditions in Bangladesh and could impose trade restrictions or shift sourcing to other regions.

### Additional Sectors

Beyond textiles and garments, Bangladesh also exports jute products and seafood to the USA and Europe. However, these sectors are less prominent and have also been impacted by broader economic instability. Political unrest and supply chain disruptions make it challenging for these industries to maintain consistent export volumes.

## Long-Term Implications

The long-term consequences of political instability in Bangladesh could be severe if the unrest persists:

#### Diversification of Supply Chains

American and European companies are likely to diversify their supply chains away from Bangladesh to reduce their exposure to political risks. This shift could lead to a significant reduction in Bangladesh's export volumes over time, particularly if buyers find more stable alternatives in neighboring countries.

#### Increased Trade Barriers

Persistent instability could lead to increased trade barriers or a reduction in preferential trade terms for Bangladeshi products. For instance, the USA and Europe could reconsider Bangladesh’s inclusion in the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), which provides duty-free access to certain products. This would weaken Bangladesh’s competitive edge in these markets.


## Remediation Recommendations

To mitigate these risks and sustain its export relationships, Bangladesh should focus on the following strategies:

#### Stabilizing Political Conditions

Restoring political stability through dialogue and implementing necessary reforms is critical for reviving confidence among international buyers. The government must prioritize a peaceful electoral process and avoid further unrest to prevent lasting damage to the export sector.

#### Improving Infrastructure

Strengthening infrastructure, particularly transportation and logistics, is essential to mitigating the impact of strikes and blockades. Ensuring reliable production and shipping processes will help maintain export volumes even during political uncertainty.

#### Ensuring Compliance with International Standards

Adhering to international labor and environmental standards is crucial for maintaining access to the USA and European markets. Bangladesh must demonstrate its commitment to improving labor conditions and factory safety to avoid sanctions or trade barriers.

## Conclusion

The ongoing political instability in Bangladesh has significant repercussions for its exports to the USA and Europe, particularly in the textiles and garments sectors. The uncertainty surrounding elections, labor conflicts, and supply chain disruptions has undermined buyer confidence and threatens to weaken Bangladesh's position in the global market. To sustain its trade relationships and ensure long-term growth, Bangladesh must address the root causes of its political instability while improving infrastructure and compliance with international standards.




Political instability in Bangladesh disrupts exports to the USA and Europe, impacting textiles, garments, supply chains, and trade relationships.

How Political Instability in Bangladesh is Disrupting Exports to the US and Europe

From 2018 to 2024, the import of lithium-ion batteries to the US has shown a significant upward trajectory, reflecting the rapid expansion of the electric vehicle (EV) industry. Key players like Tesla., Rivian., Volvo, BMW, Ford, and Toyota have all contributed to this surge in imports. The increase in battery imports closely mirrors the growth and production scale of these automakers, who are intensifying their focus on EVs.

![US EV Industry Trends](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1724676882/website/Blog/ev_trends_insights_rgoxxd.webp)

## Contribution by Major Automobile Companies

Tesla, with a TEU of 15,582.32, leads the pack as the largest importer of lithium-ion batteries. The company’s aggressive expansion strategies, including the launch of new models such as the Model Y and the establishment of Giga factories, have driven substantial increases in battery imports. Peaks in the import data are likely correlated with Tesla’s production surges during this period. Rivian Automotive Inc., although importing on a smaller scale with a TEU of 810.03, has seen a rise in imports, indicative of its growing presence in the EV market, particularly after the launch of its R1T and R1S models.

Volvo and BMW have also been active in increasing their battery imports, albeit at a more measured pace, with TEU counts of 973 and 1002, respectively. Their focus on hybrid and electric models underlines the broader industry shift toward electrification. Ford, with a TEU count of 746.79, has aligned its imports with the introduction of electric models like the Mustang Mach-E and the F-150 Lightning, reflecting a cautious yet committed approach to the EV market. Toyota, with a TEU of 3,925, showcases significant import activity, indicating its strong commitment to expanding its hybrid and EV offerings, leveraging its leadership in hybrid technology.

## Impact of COVID-19 on Battery Demand

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 led to disruptions in global supply chains, causing a temporary dip in lithium-ion battery imports as manufacturing plants shut down and vehicle demand plummeted. This downturn is visible in the import data from that period. However, as economies began to reopen and governments introduced incentives for EVs as part of green recovery plans, battery imports rebounded sharply. This recovery phase, particularly from late 2020 to 2021, saw Tesla’s dominance in the market and accelerated electrification strategies from other automakers, driving a significant rise in imports.

## Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War

The Russia-Ukraine war, beginning in 2022, brought additional challenges to the lithium-ion battery supply chain, particularly through rising raw material costs like nickel, crucial for battery production. These challenges introduced fluctuations in import trends, with companies facing supply chain disruptions and price volatility. Tesla, for instance, may have increased its imports preemptively to avoid potential shortages, leading to spikes in the graph. In contrast, other automakers may have experienced delays, resulting in temporary drops in imports during this period.

## Other Contributing Factors

Beyond the impacts of COVID-19 and geopolitical tensions, other factors have also played a role in shaping lithium-ion battery import trends. The global semiconductor shortage during this period slowed down automotive production lines, indirectly affecting battery imports as automakers adjusted their import schedules in response to production delays. Additionally, technological innovations in battery technology, such as the development of solid-state batteries and enhancements in energy density, have driven up import figures as companies seek to capitalize on these advancements. Regulatory changes, particularly stricter emissions regulations in key markets like Europe and the US, have further pushed automakers to accelerate their transition to EVs, thereby increasing demand for lithium-ion batteries.

## Future Projections

Looking ahead, the sustained growth in the EV industry is expected to continue driving high demand for lithium-ion batteries. Tesla’s ongoing expansion plans, coupled with increased commitments from legacy automakers like Ford and Toyota, suggest that import levels will remain elevated. However, potential challenges such as geopolitical instability, raw material shortages, and evolving regulations could introduce further volatility in the market. To mitigate these risks, automakers may need to diversify their supply chains and invest in alternative battery technologies.

## Summing Up

The trends in US imports of lithium-ion batteries from 2018 to 2024 illustrate the rapid growth of the global EV industry, spearheaded by companies like Tesla, Rivian, and other established automakers. The data reflects a robust demand for batteries, with temporary fluctuations caused by external factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. Despite these challenges, the momentum of the EV industry is expected to persist, driven by technological advancements and regulatory pressures favoring sustainability.

Explore the surge in US lithium-ion battery imports from 2018-2024, driven by EV industry growth and global challenges.

US EV Industry Trends

US Electric Vehicle Industry Trends

The Russia-Ukraine war significantly impacted global markets, particularly the sunflower oil sector, where both countries are major exporters. The conflict caused severe disruptions in production and trade, leading to a sharp decline in Russia's sunflower oil exports.

## Russia Sunflower Oil Exports

Initially, from April 1, 2022, to April 30, 2023, the total shipment weight was just **320.01 million kilograms**, reflecting the challenges posed by trade disruptions, especially through the Black Sea, and the impact of Western sanctions that restricted access to key European markets. However, Russia's sunflower oil exports began to recover by mid-2023, achieving a total shipment weight of **524.59 million kilograms** between April 1, 2023, and March 31, 2024—an impressive over **60%** growth compared to the previous year.

![Russia Sunflower Oil Export Trends](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1724676882/website/Blog/sunflower_insights_apracg.webp)

This recovery was driven by strategic measures such as market diversification, where Russia shifted focus towards Asia, Africa, and the Middle East to offset losses in Europe. Additionally, Russia increased production by expanding sunflower cultivation and enhancing agricultural practices, ensuring a steady supply of sunflower oil. Investments in agricultural and logistical infrastructure, including transportation and storage, also played a key role in facilitating smoother export operations.

## Current Trends in Exports

By 2024, Russia's sunflower oil exports had stabilized, reaching pre-war levels, and the country is now poised to export **5.2 million tons** in the coming year, positioning itself as a dominant global player. This stabilization is supported by significant government interventions, including subsidies and financial incentives, which have sustained production levels and competitive pricing.

Russia's adaptation to sanctions through alternative trade mechanisms, such as barter deals and partnerships with non-Western countries, has further strengthened its export capabilities. Despite a temporary dip in exports in August 2023, attributed to seasonal production variations and logistical challenges, Russia's rapid recovery underscores the resilience of its export infrastructure and strategic measures.

## Future Outlook

Looking forward, Russia is well-positioned to solidify its dominance in the global sunflower oil market. By continuing to diversify its markets, leverage competitive pricing, and capitalize on improvements in global supply chains, Russia can further increase its market share.

The projected **5.2 million tons** of sunflower oil exports highlights the potential for continued growth and the ability to navigate the challenges posed by the ongoing geopolitical situation. Through strategic adaptability and resilience, Russia is not only recovering from the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war but is also on track to potentially dominate the global sunflower oil market in the coming years.



Russia's sunflower oil exports surged 60% post-conflict, reaching 5.2 million tons in 2024, driven by market diversification and strategic investments. Read the insight to learn more.

Russia’s Sunflower Oil Export Trends

U.S. solar panel imports from the past 10 years reveal a significant surge in recent years, particularly from 2021 onwards. This trend indicates several key factors, including the rising adoption of renewable energy sources in the U.S., increased production capacity, and a growing global emphasis on sustainability. However, a critical consequence of this surge, which has wide reaching implications, is its impact on the global demand and prices for silver which is a crucial component in solar panel manufacturing.

![U.S. Solar Panel Imports](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1725969636/website/Blog/US_solar_panels_import_trends_y9s4ze.webp)

## Surge in U.S. Solar Panel Imports

The import trends shown in the graph highlight several distinct phases:
Before 2018, U.S. solar panel imports fluctuated with noticeable peaks and troughs, likely influenced by varying market conditions, regulatory changes, and shifts in global manufacturing capacities. The period from 2019 to 2020 saw a relative stabilization in imports, though the overall volume was lower compared to previous years. This stability was disrupted by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, which temporarily slowed global trade.

However, from 2021 to 2024, the graph shows a dramatic increase in imports, starting in 2021 and reaching an unprecedented peak in 2023. This surge aligns with the global push towards renewable energy, particularly in the U.S., where federal incentives and policies have strongly encouraged the adoption of solar energy.

## Silver's Role in Solar Panel Manufacturing

Silver is an essential material in solar panel production due to its superior conductivity, which enhances the efficiency of photovoltaic cells. On average, each solar panel contains about 20 grams of silver. As the demand for solar panels rises, so too does the demand for silver.

The significant increase in U.S. solar panel imports suggests that the consumption of silver has surged accordingly. Given that the U.S. is one of the largest markets for solar energy, this trend has likely had a substantial impact on global silver demand.

### Impact on Global Silver Demand

The spike in U.S. solar panel imports from 2021 to 2023, as shown in the graph, has likely led to a corresponding increase in global silver demand. With solar panel production ramping up to meet U.S. market needs, silver mining and recycling operations worldwide would have intensified their efforts to supply the necessary quantities.

Furthermore, this increased demand for silver is not limited to the U.S. The global nature of the solar industry means that a surge in one major market can influence supply chains and demand in other regions. This ripple effect could lead to increased competition for silver resources, driving up prices and encouraging exploration and investment in new silver deposits.

### Rising Silver Prices

As demand for silver grows due to the surge in solar panel production, prices are likely to increase. The precious metal market is highly sensitive to shifts in industrial demand, particularly from sectors like renewable energy that require large quantities of silver.

The sharp increase in solar panel imports seen in the graph from 2021 to 2023 have caused the significant uptick in silver prices during this period. This trend aligns with reports of rising silver prices driven by the renewable energy sector, particularly as other industries like electronics and automotive (especially electric vehicles) also contribute to silver demand.

## Broader Economic and Environmental Implications

The interplay between U.S. solar panel imports and global silver demand has broader economic and environmental implications. Economically, rising silver prices can increase the cost of solar panel production, potentially slowing down the adoption rate in cost-sensitive markets. However, it can also spur innovation in alternative materials or more efficient use of silver, driving technological advancements in the solar industry.

Environmentally, increased silver mining to meet growing demand could have negative consequences, including habitat destruction and increased carbon emissions. On the other hand, the long-term benefits of widespread solar adoption—such as reduced reliance on fossil fuels and lower greenhouse gas emissions—could outweigh these short-term environmental costs.

## Summing Up

The graph of U.S. solar panel imports clearly illustrates a significant upward trend in recent years, which has had profound effects on global silver demand and prices, a good sign for future investment. As the U.S. continues to embrace renewable energy, the ripple effects on critical raw materials like silver are becoming increasingly apparent. This dynamic highlights the interconnected nature of global markets and underscores the importance of strategic planning in both industrial supply chains and resource management.

Rise in U.S. solar panel imports increases global silver demand, impacting prices and driving changes in renewable energy markets.

Spike in U.S. Solar Panel Imports Boosts Silver Demand and Prices

Canada’s imposition of substantial tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), steel, and aluminum is a significant development in international trade, aimed at protecting domestic industries from what the government perceives as unfair competition from China. 

These tariffs include a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs and a 25% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum. The following is a detailed exploration of each aspect of this decision, explaining the underlying factors, potential impacts, and broader implications for Canada-China trade relations.

## 1. The Surge in Chinese Electric Vehicle Imports

Canada’s decision to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles stems from a dramatic increase in the volume and value of these imports. In 2022, Canada imported approximately $99 million worth of EVs from China. By 2023, this figure had skyrocketed to $1.6 billion—a nearly 16-fold increase.

This surge reflects the rapid expansion of China’s EV industry, driven by significant government support, investments in technology, and aggressive market expansion strategies. Chinese manufacturers have been able to produce EVs at a much lower cost than many of their international counterparts, making their vehicles highly competitive in global markets, including Canada. The influx of these low-cost EVs into Canada has raised concerns about the potential impact on the nascent Canadian EV industry, which is still in its developmental stages.

The Canadian government views this massive increase in Chinese EV imports as a direct threat to its domestic automotive sector. The concern is that the overwhelming influx of cheaper Chinese vehicles could undermine Canadian manufacturers' efforts to establish themselves in the growing EV market.

While Canadian companies are working to develop competitive EVs, the sheer volume and low price of Chinese imports make it difficult for them to gain a foothold. The 100% tariff on Chinese EVs is intended to mitigate this threat by leveling the playing field. By making Chinese EVs more expensive, the government hopes to protect domestic manufacturers, giving them a fair chance to compete and grow in a market that is crucial to Canada’s economic and environmental future.

## 2. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs: Protecting Core Industries

In addition to the tariffs on EVs, Canada has also imposed a 25% tariff on imports of Chinese steel and aluminum. These materials are vital to several key sectors of the Canadian economy, including construction, automotive manufacturing, and infrastructure development. The decision to target Chinese steel and aluminum imports is rooted in concerns about the practice of dumping—where countries export products at prices lower than their production costs, often due to government subsidies.

This practice can severely distort global markets by flooding them with cheap products, making it difficult for domestic producers to compete. Canada’s steel and aluminum industries, which provide thousands of jobs and contribute significantly to the national GDP, are particularly vulnerable to such unfair competition.

The imposition of the 25% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum is seen as a necessary step to protect these critical industries from the economic damage caused by dumping. Without such measures, Canadian producers could face significant financial losses, leading to job cuts and, in some cases, the closure of operations. These industries are not only economically important but also strategically crucial for national security and economic stability.

By imposing tariffs, the Canadian government aims to safeguard these industries, ensuring they remain viable and competitive in the face of unfair foreign competition. However, while these tariffs are intended to protect domestic producers, they may also lead to increased costs for Canadian companies that rely on steel and aluminum as inputs, potentially leading to higher prices for consumers.

## 3. Broader Trade and Diplomatic Implications

Canada’s decision to impose tariffs on Chinese imports is part of a broader trend of rising protectionism and increasing trade tensions between China and Western nations. China is one of Canada’s largest trading partners, and the imposition of these tariffs could have significant diplomatic and economic consequences. Over the past few years, Canada’s relationship with China has been strained by various issues, including concerns over Huawei’s involvement in Canada’s 5G network and broader geopolitical tensions.

The tariffs on Chinese EVs, steel, and aluminum are likely to exacerbate these tensions, potentially leading to a cooling of diplomatic relations. China may view these tariffs as a hostile move, which could have repercussions for Canadian businesses operating in or exporting to China.

There is also the risk of retaliatory measures from China. In response to the tariffs, China could impose tariffs on Canadian goods or restrict market access, which would negatively impact Canadian exporters. Sectors such as agriculture, natural resources, and technology, where China is a significant market, could be particularly vulnerable to such retaliation. This could lead to a decline in Canadian exports to China, harming businesses and potentially leading to job losses.

The broader impact on global trade could be significant, as other countries may also respond to these tensions, leading to a potential escalation of trade disputes. Canada’s actions reflect a broader global trend of increasing protectionism, with countries re-evaluating their trade relationships with China and seeking to protect their domestic industries from perceived unfair competition.

## 4. Strategic Importance of the Tariffs

Beyond the immediate economic effects, Canada’s decision to impose tariffs on Chinese imports has strategic implications for the country’s long-term economic and industrial policy. One of the key goals of these tariffs is to build stronger domestic industries. By making Chinese imports more expensive, the Canadian government hopes to encourage investment in domestic production, research, and development.

The tariffs are intended to provide a protective buffer for Canadian manufacturers, allowing them the space to grow, innovate, and become more competitive without the overwhelming pressure of low-cost foreign competition. This is particularly important for industries like EV manufacturing, steel, and aluminum, which are seen as critical to Canada’s economic future.

Additionally, the tariffs reflect a broader strategic goal of reducing Canada’s dependency on imports, particularly from countries like China, which are seen as strategic competitors. By fostering domestic industries and reducing reliance on Chinese imports, Canada aims to enhance its economic security and reduce its vulnerability to supply chain disruptions and economic coercion.

This move is part of a broader global trend where countries are increasingly focused on protecting their critical industries and reducing dependency on foreign suppliers, particularly in sectors that are crucial for national security and economic stability. Over time, these measures could help Canada become more self-sufficient, contributing to the country’s long-term economic resilience and stability.

Canada imposes tariffs on Chinese EVs, steel, and aluminum to protect domestic industries and reduce reliance on foreign imports.

Canada's Imposes Tariffs on Chinese EVs, Steel, and Aluminum

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Canada Imposes Tariffs on Chinese EVs, Steel, and Aluminum

The US has announced the end of tariff exemptions on Chinese graphite anodes, critical for electric vehicle (EV) batteries and various industrial uses. This policy shift comes at a time of heightened global competition for raw materials, especially as the demand for EVs rises. Chinese graphite anodes were central to the US EV manufacturing ecosystem due to their lower costs and high availability, but the revocation of tariff exemptions marks a significant change in US trade policies and supply chains.

The tariffs on graphite anodes were first imposed in 2018 under the Trump administration's Section 301 Tariff. However, due to China's dominant position in the graphite supply chain, the 25% tariff has been waived in recent years to ensure a steady supply. Many in the market had expected the US might extend this exemption until 2026, similar to natural graphite tariffs announced earlier in May 2024. Despite these expectations, the exemption is set to end after June 14, 2024.

![Chinese graphite anode exports to US, 2018-2021](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1725969688/website/Blog/Insight_Graph_1_v7yv9w.webp)

Between 2018 and 2021, China was the dominant supplier of graphite anodes to the US, with graph data from 2018 to November 2021 (as shown above) reflecting China's significant export volumes. However, geopolitical tensions and overreliance on Chinese imports posed increasing risks to US businesses, making the supply chain vulnerable to disruptions. During this period, Chinese shipments remained consistently high, with peaks in mid-2019 and mid-2021, reaching over 140 shipments per month. This steady flow was supported by the tariff exemptions, which allowed US companies to benefit from China's lower production costs.

![Chinese graphite anode exports to US, 2022-2024](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1725969688/website/Blog/Insight_Graph_2_i4sc0e.webp)

In contrast, from late 2021 to 2024, US manufacturers increasingly turned to India as an alternative supplier. By mid-2024, India surpassed China in shipment volumes, as illustrated in the 2021–2024 graph, with Indian exports rising to over 1,100 shipments, while China's exports dwindled below 400. This shift highlights the growing diversification efforts of US companies, preparing for the end of tariff exemptions and reducing dependency on Chinese imports.

Chinese graphite anode exports have also been affected by China's export control policies, which introduced an export license requirement for certain graphite-related products in December 2023. Anode producers have reported delays in the review process for these licenses, slowing the export flow. By the first quarter of 2024, China’s total synthetic and natural graphite anode exports to the US stood at 10,464 tonnes. Market participants expect these export controls, combined with the end of tariff exemptions, to further disrupt supply.

While this move may lead to cost increases and logistical hurdles, it also presents opportunities for supply chain diversification. As seen with India’s growing role in the graphite supply chain, companies are building stronger trade relationships with alternative suppliers. As the global demand for EVs and renewable energy systems continues to grow, businesses must adapt to secure reliable sources of graphite anodes, ensuring resilience in their supply chains.


Read Our Insight: The US ends tariff exemptions on Chinese graphite anodes, driving supply chain shifts as companies turn to alternative suppliers like India.









US Revokes Tariff Exemptions on Chinese Graphite Anodes

The U.S. pharmaceutical industry is one of the largest and most influential sectors in the global economy, playing a critical role in healthcare by producing innovative drugs, vaccines, and medical treatments. Home to some of the world’s leading pharmaceutical companies, the U.S. has long been at the forefront of pharmaceutical research, development, and exports. This industry not only supports millions of jobs domestically but also addresses worldwide healthcare needs by supplying high-quality pharmaceutical products to countries around the globe.

Over the past few years, the U.S. pharmaceutical import landscape has been evolving due to a combination of declining imports from traditional suppliers like China, India, and European countries. Understanding these shifts requires an analysis of various factors, including geopolitical tensions, trade agreements, regulatory challenges, and supply chain disruptions, as well as opportunities created by new entrants in the market.

## Decline in U.S. Pharmaceutical Imports from China

From 2019-2022, China was a significant exporter of pharmaceutical goods to the U.S., but we see a reduction in this volume in the 2022-2024 period. Several key factors explain this:

**U.S.-China Trade War and Tariffs:** Starting in 2018, the trade war between the U.S. and China escalated with each country imposing tariffs on various goods. Pharmaceuticals weren’t heavily impacted initially, but the overall tense trade environment created uncertainties. For some Chinese pharmaceutical products, higher tariffs were applied, which made these goods more expensive for U.S. buyers. This led U.S. companies to look for alternative suppliers who could provide lower-cost products without the added tax burden.

**Supply Chain Disruptions from COVID-19:** The pandemic severely affected manufacturing and shipping worldwide, but especially in China due to strict lockdowns and travel restrictions. Even though pharmaceuticals were deemed essential and continued production, logistical challenges—such as port closures, shipping delays, and a shortage of cargo capacity—slowed down exports from China. These disruptions caused U.S. companies to explore other countries like India and European suppliers for more reliable pharmaceutical imports.

**U.S. Diversification Efforts:** The U.S. has been actively working to reduce its dependency on China for critical goods, including pharmaceuticals. This has been a strategic move to prevent over-reliance on a single country for essential medicines. The U.S. government has encouraged domestic production and sought to establish partnerships with other countries to increase supply chain resilience. This policy shift led to a decline in pharmaceutical imports from China as U.S. companies sourced their products elsewhere.

![CHINA PHARMA EXPORT TRENDS TO U.S.
](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1727442219/website/Blog/china_exports_to_us_siqtx8.png)

## Stagnant Growth in India’s Pharmaceutical Exports to the U.S.

India is the world’s largest provider of generic medicines, but the data shows a slower growth in pharmaceutical exports to the U.S. between 2022 and 2024. Here are the main reasons:

**Pressure on Generic Drug Prices:** India exports a large volume of low-cost generic drugs to the U.S. However, the U.S. healthcare system has been trying to control costs by pushing down the prices it pays for these drugs. The U.S. government and insurance companies have implemented pricing controls and promoted local manufacturing to reduce their dependency on imports. This price pressure affects Indian exporters because they operate on thin margins and cannot always lower their prices further. As a result, while India’s export volumes remain stable, the growth rate has slowed.

**Regulatory Scrutiny from the U.S. FDA:** The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) plays a crucial role in approving drugs for import. Over the years, many Indian pharmaceutical companies have faced challenges with quality control and compliance issues in their manufacturing plants. The FDA has frequently imposed bans on specific Indian factories for failing to meet stringent quality standards, which limits the ability of Indian companies to expand their exports to the U.S. Ensuring compliance with FDA regulations has become more costly and time-consuming for Indian firms.

**Focus on Domestic and Global Vaccine Production:** During the COVID-19 pandemic, India shifted much of its focus to producing vaccines, including the AstraZeneca vaccine, which India manufactured in large volumes under the name Covishield. This global demand for vaccines redirected India’s pharmaceutical production capacity away from other drugs, including those destined for the U.S. market. Even though vaccine production was a priority, it reduced India’s ability to increase its exports of generic medicines to the U.S.

![INDIA PHARMA EXPORT TRENDS TO U.S.
](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1727442219/website/Blog/India_exports_to_US_r1kexn.png)

## Decline in Pharmaceutical Exports from European Countries

Exports from major European countries like Germany, France, and Switzerland have also seen a decline. These countries are known for producing high-quality, innovative pharmaceutical products, but several factors are at play:

**Higher Production Costs in Europe:** European pharmaceutical companies often produce more complex, innovative drugs, which are typically more expensive to manufacture compared to the generics coming from countries like India. In recent years, the European Union (EU) has implemented stricter environmental and pharmaceutical regulations, such as guidelines for carbon emissions and tighter controls on chemical waste from factories. These regulations have increased the cost of manufacturing, making European drugs less competitive in the U.S. market.

**Shifts in Investment Priorities:** During the pandemic, European governments and companies began investing more heavily in the domestic production of pharmaceuticals to ensure self-sufficiency. The focus was on building resilient supply chains that could withstand future crises like COVID-19. These investments redirected resources that might have otherwise been used to expand exports to markets like the U.S.

**Increased Domestic Demand in Europe:** The pandemic caused a surge in domestic demand for pharmaceuticals across Europe. European countries prioritized using their production capacity to meet the healthcare needs of their populations, especially for critical medicines and vaccines. This left less capacity for exports to the U.S., leading to a reduction in volumes.

**Impact of Brexit on the U.K. Pharmaceutical Sector:** The United Kingdom was a significant player in pharmaceutical exports to the U.S., but Brexit has created several complications. Since leaving the European Union, U.K. pharmaceutical companies have faced additional bureaucratic hurdles, such as new documentation requirements and customs checks. Additionally, the regulatory divergence between the U.K. and the EU has made it more difficult for U.K. companies to export their products, as they need to comply with separate regulations for the EU and other countries like the U.S. These factors have contributed to a slowdown in U.K. pharmaceutical exports to the U.S.

In addition to the decline or stagnant growth in U.S. pharmaceutical imports from traditional players like China, India, and Europe, the graphs you provided also indicate the emergence of new market players that are beginning to influence the U.S. pharmaceutical import landscape. Here's a more detailed analysis of these emerging markets and what may be driving their growth.

![INDIA PHARMA EXPORT TRENDS TO U.S.
](https://res.cloudinary.com/drzta9shk/image/upload/v1727442219/website/Blog/Eurpoe_Exports_to_US_sd7hwe.png)


## Conclusion

The U.S. pharmaceutical export landscape has undergone significant changes from 2022 to 2024, influenced by several global and domestic factors. Imports from traditional suppliers such as China, India, and European nations have declined or experienced stagnation due to a combination of trade tensions, regulatory challenges, and shifting domestic priorities. China's exports were affected by the U.S.-China trade war and supply chain disruptions, while India's pharmaceutical growth slowed due to price pressures and stricter FDA regulations. Europe, faced with rising production costs, increased domestic demand, and Brexit complications, also saw a reduction in exports to the U.S.

Explore the decline of traditional players in U.S. pharmaceutical imports, driven by global and domestic factors. understand the key reasons of driving the decline of market share of countries such as India, China, and Europe.

The Decline of Traditional Players in U.S. Pharmaceutical Imports

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## Geopolitical Impact on Egypt’s Wheat Imports

As of September 2024, Egypt's wheat import patterns have shifted drastically, largely due to the geopolitical unrest surrounding the Black Sea region. Egypt, one of the largest wheat importers globally, typically depends on Russia and Ukraine for the bulk of its grain supply.

However, heightened tensions and military actions between these nations are now disrupting wheat exports, creating uncertainties in global food supply chains. These disruptions are exacerbating challenges for Egypt, which relies on wheat as a dietary staple for its growing population.

The **38.89% drop** in wheat imports from Russia this year is a clear indicator of Egypt's increasing vulnerability. Historically, the country has significantly increased imports to mitigate food security risks. For example, in 2023, Egypt increased wheat imports by **41.6%**, and in 2022, this number surged by **60.26%**, demonstrating its dependency on stable wheat flows from the region. The volatility experienced in 2024, however, reveals the fragility of such reliance in times of conflict.

## Black Sea Trade Disruptions

Russia’s military aggression on Ukrainian wheat shipments could be seen as a strategic move to punish Egypt for continuing to import wheat from Ukraine rather than increasing its reliance on Russian supplies. The Black Sea, once protected by international agreements, has become increasingly perilous for cargo ships, particularly those carrying Ukrainian grain.

Egypt, one of the world’s largest wheat importers, has faced growing difficulties securing affordable wheat due to these escalations. The missile strikes on Ukrainian civilian vessels have contributed to higher wheat prices on the global market, directly impacting Egypt’s economy, where bread remains a critical, government-subsidized staple food.

Given that Russia has positioned itself as one of Egypt’s primary wheat suppliers in recent years, any attempts by Egypt to diversify its imports—particularly through Ukrainian wheat—are likely viewed by Moscow as undermining its influence in the region. These actions by Egypt may have prompted a more hostile Russian stance, with increased military activity targeting grain exports from Ukraine. By curtailing Ukraine’s ability to fulfill its grain contracts, Russia indirectly pressures Egypt to shift more of its wheat imports toward Russian suppliers, reinforcing its economic and political sway.

The missile attacks on Ukrainian cargo ships, including those bound for Egypt, are more than just acts of war. They also serve as pressure tactics designed to coerce Egypt into abandoning Ukrainian trade routes in favor of Russian supplies. This aggressive strategy is part of a broader plan by Russia to limit Egypt’s economic autonomy, making it harder for the country to secure affordable food supplies independently.

By forcing Egypt’s hand, Russia aims to deepen its geopolitical leverage over global food supply chains, ensuring that its dominance in wheat exports goes uncontested, further complicating the already fragile state of global food security.

## Russia's Strategic Moves and Diplomatic Push

While the ongoing conflict presents clear economic challenges, Russia has sought to deepen diplomatic and economic ties with Egypt and other African nations. By positioning itself as a key partner in sectors like energy, defense, and trade, Russia aims to bolster its influence in the region, potentially opening new opportunities for collaboration. However, despite these stronger diplomatic relations, they do not solve the immediate challenge of wheat import disruptions.

Egypt may benefit from these closer relations with Russia in other areas, but securing a stable wheat supply remains a pressing issue. Diplomatic ties with Russia are insufficient to protect Egypt from the fluctuating wheat prices and supply chain disruptions exacerbated by the conflict. Therefore, Egypt must also consider diplomatic avenues to expand its trade partnerships beyond Russia and Ukraine.

## Alternatives and Strategic Opportunities

Amid this turbulent geopolitical landscape, Egypt’s entry into the BRICS group offers a significant opportunity to diversify its wheat sources. Being part of BRICS opens up potential trade relations with Brazil, India, and other emerging economies, which may serve as alternative suppliers of wheat. This could reduce Egypt’s heavy reliance on the volatile Black Sea region for grain imports.

In addition to expanding trade partnerships, Egypt is increasingly exploring domestic agricultural strategies to safeguard its food supply. Investments in local wheat production are critical as part of a long-term strategy to reduce dependence on imports. Though the country faces water and land constraints, improving agricultural efficiency could help mitigate some of the challenges created by geopolitical volatility.

## Conclusion: A Call for Diversification and Resilience

Egypt’s reliance on wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine underscores the importance of diversifying its trade and food security strategies. While closer diplomatic relations with Russia and entry into the BRICS group offer potential benefits, they cannot fully compensate for the loss of stable and affordable wheat supplies in the short term. The Black Sea conflict has proven to be a critical choke point for global trade, and without swift action, Egypt could face further food security challenges as prices continue to rise and supplies become scarcer.

To mitigate the impacts of ongoing global disruptions, Egypt must prioritize diversifying its wheat sources, increasing domestic production, and securing alternative trade routes. While the challenges are significant, adopting a proactive approach to agricultural investment and global partnerships can help ensure that Egypt builds a more resilient food supply chain moving forward.


Explore how geopolitical unrest in the Black Sea is disrupting Egypt's wheat imports from Ukraine, highlighting the implications for food security and supply chain resilience.

Why Russia Struck Egypt’s Wheat Imports from Ukraine

In recent years, the U.S. pharmaceutical import landscape has undergone a significant transformation, marked by the decline of traditional suppliers like China, India, and European nations and the rise of non-traditional players such as Vietnam, Mexico, Brazil, South Korea, and Turkey.

From 2022 to 2024, imports from these emerging markets have surged, driven by competitive pricing, enhanced production capabilities, and favorable trade agreements. This shift has been fueled by geopolitical tensions, regulatory barriers, supply chain disruptions, and U.S. policies aimed at reducing dependency on long-standing suppliers, positioning these new players as critical components of the U.S. pharmaceutical supply chain.

### 1. Vietnam

**Cost Advantage and Trade Agreements:** Vietnam has developed its pharmaceutical manufacturing capabilities over the past decade. With a lower cost base compared to countries like China and India, Vietnam can produce generic medicines at competitive prices. Additionally, trade agreements between Vietnam and the U.S., such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and bilateral agreements, have created more favorable conditions for pharmaceutical exports.

**Growing Pharmaceutical Sector:** Vietnam's government has also invested significantly in its pharmaceutical sector, focusing on Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP) compliance to meet international standards. These investments have made Vietnamese pharmaceutical products more attractive to the U.S. market.

### 2. Mexico

**Geographical Proximity and USMCA:** Mexico is emerging as an important pharmaceutical supplier due to its proximity to the U.S., which reduces shipping times and logistics costs. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which replaced NAFTA, provides favorable conditions for pharmaceutical trade between Mexico and the U.S. Mexico’s pharmaceutical sector has been steadily growing, especially in the production of generics and biosimilars, which are highly sought after in the U.S. market.

**Increased Investments:** International pharmaceutical companies, including U.S. firms, have been investing in Mexican manufacturing plants to serve the North American market, further boosting Mexico’s presence in the U.S. pharmaceutical import landscape.

### 3. Brazil

**Rising Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Capacity:** Brazil’s pharmaceutical sector has grown substantially, driven by strong government support and significant investment in local production capacity. Brazil is known for producing high-quality generic drugs and biosimilars, which are becoming increasingly popular in the U.S. due to their lower cost compared to brand-name drugs.

**Diversification of Supply Chains:** As the U.S. seeks to diversify its pharmaceutical supply chains, Brazil is emerging as a strategic partner. The country’s ability to produce affordable and reliable pharmaceuticals, combined with favorable trade relations, positions it as a growing exporter to the U.S. market.

### 4. South Korea

**Innovation and High-Quality Pharmaceuticals:** South Korea is becoming a significant player in the global pharmaceutical industry, especially in the biopharmaceuticals and innovative drug sectors. South Korean companies are investing heavily in research and development (R&D), and their high-quality pharmaceutical products are gaining recognition worldwide.

**Biotech and Biopharmaceutical Exports:** With its strong focus on biotechnology and biopharmaceuticals, South Korea is filling a niche in the U.S. market, particularly for complex, high-value drugs. South Korean companies have established partnerships with U.S. pharmaceutical firms, further facilitating trade.

### 5. Turkey

**Strategic Location and Competitive Pricing:** Turkey’s pharmaceutical sector has been expanding, and its strategic location between Europe and Asia makes it an important trade hub. Turkish pharmaceutical companies have been producing a wide range of generic drugs and vaccines, which have started to gain traction in the U.S. market due to competitive pricing and improved production standards.

**Government Incentives:** The Turkish government has provided incentives to boost pharmaceutical exports, including tax breaks and subsidies for manufacturers who meet international quality standards. This push to increase exports has led to Turkey emerging as a key supplier in the U.S. market.

## Why These New Markets Are Emerging

### Supply Chain Diversification

**U.S. Shift Away from Traditional Suppliers:** As mentioned earlier, the U.S. has been actively diversifying its supply chains to reduce dependence on countries like China and India. This diversification strategy has opened doors for new players who can offer competitive pricing, high-quality products, and consistent supply.

### Lower Costs and Competitive Pricing

**Affordability of Generics and Biosimilars:** Emerging markets such as Vietnam, Mexico, Brazil, and Turkey are well-positioned to produce affordable generic drugs and biosimilars, which are in high demand in the U.S. These countries have a lower cost of production compared to established markets, allowing them to offer competitive prices without compromising on quality.
c. Geopolitical and Trade Dynamics

**Favorable Trade Agreements:** The U.S. has signed several free trade agreements and regional partnerships that facilitate easier and more cost-effective trade with these emerging markets. For example, Mexico benefits from the USMCA, while South Korea has a free trade agreement with the U.S., which boosts pharmaceutical exports.

**Geopolitical Strategy:** Some of these emerging markets are seen as strategic partners for the U.S., which seeks to diversify away from countries with which it has strained political relations (e.g., China). This has made countries like Vietnam and Mexico increasingly attractive as reliable pharmaceutical suppliers.

### Improvement in Production Quality

**Compliance with International Standards:** Countries like South Korea and Turkey have been making significant investments in their pharmaceutical sectors, ensuring that their manufacturing practices meet international standards like GMP and ISO. As a result, their products are gaining acceptance in the highly regulated U.S. market.

### Innovation and Specialization

**Biopharmaceutical and Biotech Leadership:** Countries such as South Korea have been investing heavily in biopharmaceuticals and biotech innovation, which are areas of growing demand in the U.S. These countries have been able to carve out a niche by offering high-value, innovative drugs that address unmet needs in the U.S. healthcare system.

## Summing Up

The U.S. pharmaceutical import market has undergone a significant shift from 2022 to 2024, with emerging suppliers like Vietnam, Mexico, Brazil, South Korea, and Turkey gaining prominence. This transformation is driven by competitive pricing, improved production capabilities, and favorable trade agreements, as the U.S. diversifies away from traditional suppliers like China and India due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions.

Each of these new market players brings unique advantages—such as Vietnam's cost-effective generics, Mexico's geographical proximity, Brazil's rising manufacturing capacity, South Korea's innovation in biotech, and Turkey's strategic location—reshaping the U.S. pharmaceutical supply chain. These emerging markets are thriving due to their ability to offer affordable, high-quality pharmaceuticals, supported by government incentives, international standards compliance, and strategic trade agreements.

Emerging markets like Vietnam, Mexico, Brazil, and South Korea are reshaping U.S. pharmaceutical imports with affordable, high-quality products.

Emergence of New Market Players in the U.S. Pharmaceutical Import Market

In 2024, the healthcare sector in the United States faced a series of severe cyberattacks that significantly disrupted its operations and impacted pharmaceutical exports, particularly those categorized under pharmaceutical products.

A recent report by Proofpoint and Ponemon Institute highlighted that **92% of healthcare organizations in the US experienced a cyberattack in the past year**, where hackers infiltrated third-party suppliers in their upstream deep-tiers.

The complex relationship between healthcare operations and pharmaceutical logistics became painfully evident during these incidents. Let's delve into the details of these attacks and their ramifications on the pharmaceutical supply chain.

## Change Healthcare

On February 21, 2024, Change Healthcare, a pivotal player in the U.S. healthcare technology sector, fell victim to a sophisticated ransomware attack. This incident had profound implications not just for the company but for the entire healthcare ecosystem, affecting hospitals, pharmacies, and various medical billing operations.

The ransomware attack on Change Healthcare resulted in a complete service shutdown, causing significant disruptions across the healthcare sector. Hospitals relying on Change Healthcare faced operational challenges, with medical staff unable to access vital patient data, leading to treatment delays. 

Pharmacies also experienced severe delays in prescription processing and medication dispensing, compromising patient access and straining relationships with healthcare providers. Additionally, the attack halted billing operations, preventing timely claims processing and reimbursements, which created cash flow 
issues for healthcare institutions.

The ransomware attack on Change Healthcare had a severe impact on the U.S. healthcare sector, disrupting critical operations like patient care, pharmacy prescriptions, and medical billing. It also triggered a ripple effect through the U.S. pharmaceutical export chain, delaying shipments, straining international relationships, and causing financial setbacks for pharmaceutical companies. 

This disruption aligns with the observed drop in export trends, as seen in the provided graph. The graph shows a notable dip in shipments after 2023, which could reflect the immediate aftermath of the attack, including logistical hurdles and unmet global demand for U.S. pharmaceuticals, further exacerbated by supply chain vulnerabilities exposed during the incident.

The ramifications extended to pharmaceutical companies, which encountered increased financial losses due to delays in order fulfillment, leading to inventory pile-ups and rising operational costs. Reports indicated a 25% drop in pharmaceutical exports in the months following the attack, attributed to logistical challenges and unmet demand. The incident also raised concerns about the vulnerabilities in healthcare technology, eroding market confidence among investors and potentially leading to long-term financial repercussions for those in the pharmaceutical supply chain.

## Kaiser Permanente Data Breach

Kaiser Permanente, one of the largest managed care organizations in the U.S., notified stakeholders of a data breach on April 12, 2024, that exposed sensitive patient information. This incident necessitated immediate action to mitigate the breach, diverting critical resources from regular pharmaceutical operations.

The breach disrupted order processing and distribution, leading to delays in medication delivery to healthcare providers. Staff members focused on addressing the breach, which caused operational hiccups and contributed to a decline in confidence among partners within the pharmaceutical supply chain.

The operational disruptions not only delayed medication deliveries but also strained relationships with suppliers and distributors. As partners sought to manage their own risks, trust in Kaiser Permanente's ability to uphold commitments diminished, impacting ongoing collaborations and future contracts.

Reports indicated a nearly 15% slowdown in pharmaceutical exports during the recovery period. Companies struggled to regain their footing amidst heightened focus on cybersecurity, resulting in increased operational costs and challenges in maintaining business relationships.

## Ascension Cyberattack

Ascension, a prominent healthcare provider in the U.S., experienced significant outages due to a cyberattack on May 8, 2024, that impacted numerous hospitals. This attack led to major disruptions in access to electronic health records and pharmacy services, complicating pharmaceutical distribution.

As healthcare providers worked to restore normal operations, pharmaceutical companies were forced to temporarily halt shipments. The attack severely affected the supply chain, leading to substantial operational challenges for healthcare providers and pharmaceutical firms alike.

The temporary halt in shipments led to inventory shortages, affecting not only healthcare providers but also pharmacies that relied on timely access to medications. This disruption strained logistics networks and highlighted vulnerabilities in the pharmaceutical supply chain, prompting concerns about future reliability.

The industry witnessed an approximate 20% decrease in pharmaceutical exports in the months following the attack. These statistics illustrate the far-reaching consequences of cyber threats, as they compromise not only patient data but also the integrity of global supply chain dynamics.

## Future Outlook

The healthcare industry's vulnerabilities to cyberattacks have profound implications for pharmaceutical exports, particularly given the critical nature of timely and accurate medication delivery. The recent incidents involving Change Healthcare, Kaiser Permanente, and Ascension illustrate how cyber threats can disrupt operations and adversely impact the pharmaceutical supply chain.

As cyber threats continue to evolve, the healthcare industry's increasing reliance on technology makes it imperative to adopt enhanced visibility measures to identify suppliers in deeper tiers and put cybersecurity measures and firewalls in place. The ongoing impacts of cyberattacks, as evidenced by recent incidents, underscore the urgency of establishing robust defenses.
Moving forward, the importance of investing in [supply chain mapping](https://www.trademo.com/map) solutions cannot be overstated. 

Companies must take proactive measures to identify upstream suppliers and secure their operations against a cyber threat. By adopting a comprehensive visibility and security strategy, pharmaceutical companies can protect their assets, ensure the integrity of their supply chains, and maintain the critical flow of products that underpin the healthcare system. In doing so, they will not only safeguard their own interests but also contribute to the resilience of the broader healthcare landscape.



Explore the impact of cyberattacks on the U.S. healthcare sector and pharmaceutical exports, highlighting recent incidents, operational disruptions, and the urgent need for enhanced cybersecurity measures in supply chains.








Cyberattacks on U.S Healthcare Industry Highlights Upstream Risks

With Trademo Map, you can map upstream suppliers and downstream buyers, and get alerts on non-compliance risks on sanctions, forced labor, export controls, ultimate beneficial owner, and supplier concentration.

Hurricane Milton's impact on Florida's logistics infrastructure has significantly disrupted global trade, causing considerable challenges for both exporters and importers. With Florida serving as a key gateway to the U.S. market, particularly through its ports, the ripple effects are being felt across industries worldwide. From the perspective of exporters and importers, the disruption presents several challenges

## 1. Port Closures and Rerouting of Shipments

Florida’s major ports, such as Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, and Manatee, are critical hubs for global trade, handling a wide variety of goods ranging from raw materials like petroleum and steel to consumer products. The closure of these ports due to Hurricane Milton has halted the flow of essential goods. For exporters, particularly those shipping to the U.S. from Latin America and Asia, the port shutdowns mean delays in getting products into the U.S. market. This is particularly challenging for industries that rely on just-in-time (JIT) inventory systems, such as electronics and automotive manufacturing, where even minor delays can disrupt production schedules.

On the other hand, importers in the U.S. who depend on regular shipments through these ports are facing shortages of key goods, including fuel and construction materials. The delays in receiving shipments lead to increased storage costs as goods are held in warehouses or redirected to other ports, which can often be less efficient. Furthermore, importers may face additional freight costs as shipping companies reroute vessels to ports in neighboring states like Georgia, South Carolina, or Alabama, further straining their profit margins.

## 2. Fuel Supply Chain Bottlenecks

The fuel industry has been particularly affected, with the closure of Florida’s ports delaying the arrival of large tankers. Importers of fuel are facing supply chain disruptions, which extend to trucking and road transportation networks that depend on a steady supply of fuel. This has a domino effect, impacting not just fuel distribution but also the broader logistics industry. Without sufficient fuel, trucking fleets cannot maintain their delivery schedules, creating delays in the movement of goods, including perishable items like food and medicines.

Exporters reliant on trucking services to deliver their products to U.S. markets are also at a disadvantage. Delays in fuel supply chains mean that goods waiting to be transported inland from alternative ports face longer lead times and increased transportation costs. These issues are compounded by the increased demand for fuel in regions unaffected by the hurricane, driving up prices and making it more expensive for exporters to get their goods to market.

## 3. Disruptions in Inland Transportation

The inland logistics network, particularly highways and railroads, has seen severe disruptions. Flooded roads and damaged rail lines in Florida are causing significant delays in the movement of goods from ports to warehouses and distribution centers. Exporters who depend on efficient inland transportation systems to move goods to their final destinations are facing uncertainty regarding delivery schedules.

Similarly, importers receiving goods from Florida’s ports now face higher costs as shipments are rerouted through neighboring states, where the increased volume is causing congestion and longer wait times for freight handling. The shortage of trucks and drivers, as some are temporarily out of commission due to road damage, further exacerbates the delay.

## 4. Increased Shipping Costs and Lead Times

Both exporters and importers are grappling with increased shipping costs and longer lead times as a result of Hurricane Milton. The need to divert shipments to ports outside Florida has created congestion in those alternative ports, leading to higher freight handling costs and delays. For example, importers are paying premium prices to ensure that their goods are processed at these ports on time, but even with these premiums, lead times are extended due to the backlog of ships and goods awaiting clearance.

Exporters sending goods to the U.S. are facing increased freight rates due to higher demand for alternative routes. Moreover, the delays caused by port rerouting mean that contracts for delivery may face penalties for late shipments, adding financial strain to exporters already dealing with rising fuel and transportation costs.

## 5. Global Supply Chain Disruptions and Stock Shortages

The disruption caused by Hurricane Milton is creating stock shortages in various industries that depend on global supply chains. Importers of consumer goods, construction materials, and electronics are particularly affected, as many of these products are stuck in limbo, either offshore or waiting to be rerouted to other ports. Stock shortages are expected to last for several weeks, potentially months, especially as larger ports like Tampa Bay take longer to resume normal operations.

Exporters sending goods into the U.S. may also face reduced demand as U.S. companies struggle to balance their supply chains. Retailers, for example, may delay new orders as they deal with stock shortages and rising costs, which could negatively affect exporters’ sales volumes.

## 6. Global Ripple Effect

The ripple effect of Hurricane Milton on global trade goes beyond Florida. For importers relying on goods from Asia, Europe, and Latin America, the disruptions at Florida’s ports are contributing to global supply chain volatility. Already strained by previous disruptions like the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions, global shipping networks are now facing further pressure to adapt to shifting routes and congested ports.

For exporters, particularly those dealing with time-sensitive goods, these disruptions may result in missed opportunities. Countries relying on Florida as a key entry point into the U.S. market now have to negotiate complex rerouting logistics, driving up costs and increasing the time it takes for products to reach U.S. customers.

## Conclusion

Hurricane Milton’s impact on global trade underscores the vulnerability of the logistics networks that tie exporters and importers together. From port closures to fuel shortages and inland transportation challenges, the storm has created a cascading series of disruptions that are likely to affect global supply chains for months. Exporters face increased costs and longer lead times, while importers struggle with stock shortages and heightened logistical complexities. The full recovery of the supply chain will depend not only on the speed of infrastructure repair but also on the resilience of global logistics networks to adapt to this latest challenge.

Hurricane Milton disrupts global trade, causing port closures, supply chain bottlenecks, rising costs, and stock shortages for exporters and importers.

Effect of  Hurricane Milton On Global Trade

The **Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA)**, implemented in June 2022, has significantly reshaped global trade, particularly for industries reliant on imports from regions implicated in forced labor, notably China.

The [UFLPA](https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/trade/uyghur-forced-labor-prevention-act-statistics) prevents goods produced under such conditions from entering the U.S. market, requiring companies to prove their supply chains are free of forced labor. This legislative shift has created compliance challenges that have reverberated across various sectors, especially those reliant on complex, international supply chains.

Analyzing trade data from FY 2022 to FY 2024 highlights how these challenges impact global trade practices and push companies to reassess sourcing strategies to ensure compliance.

## Trade and Denial Rates: A Statistical Overview

From FY 2022 to FY 2024, a total of 10,160 shipments under [UFLPA](https://www.trademo.com/blog/uyghur-forced-labor-prevention-act) were recorded across several key sectors, resulting in an overall denial rate of 42%. This figure underlines the difficulty businesses face in navigating UFLPA compliance.

The Apparel, Footwear, and Textiles sector saw a particularly high denial rate, with 60.4% of shipments rejected (1,126 out of 1,860). Similarly, the Automotive and Aerospace industries faced a denial rate of 62.6%, with 147 out of 235 shipments being blocked.

The Pharmaceuticals, Health, and Chemicals sectors also reported significant challenges, with a denial rate of around 63%. These high rejection rates reveal the intensity of regulatory scrutiny and highlight the immense pressure placed on businesses to prove the ethical origins of their products.

## Trade Value Shifts: The Rise of Alternative Sourcing

In response to the challenges posed by UFLPA, businesses have been shifting their sourcing strategies. The data from recent years reveals that Malaysia has emerged as a key player in the trade landscape, with imports valued at $1.56 billion, surpassing Vietnam ($1.01 billion). Thailand ($0.52 billion), China ($0.40 billion), and India ($55.32 million) followed behind.

This shift signals a strategic pivot towards regions where companies can be more confident in their ability to prove ethical sourcing and labor practices. As businesses increasingly prioritize compliance, they are moving away from suppliers in regions with forced labor risks, such as China, and towards countries with more robust labor protections and transparent practices.

This transition is not only about compliance but also about safeguarding business reputations and responding to growing consumer demand for ethically sourced products. In the face of heightened regulatory pressure, companies are recognizing that ethical sourcing is increasingly integral to long-term business sustainability.

## Compliance and Transparency: The Need for Robust Frameworks

The high denial rates across multiple sectors highlight the importance of robust compliance frameworks for businesses. As the UFLPA continues to influence trade dynamics, companies are focusing on enhancing their supply chain transparency. This includes implementing more rigorous due diligence processes, conducting regular supplier audits, and investing in technologies like blockchain to track the origin of materials and labor used in production.

To meet UFLPA compliance standards, companies are increasingly turning to technologies that provide end-to-end visibility, enabling them to verify the ethical sourcing of materials and maintain comprehensive documentation to meet regulatory demands. Such transparency is essential not only to comply with the law but also to mitigate risks associated with forced labor and reputational damage.

Additionally, companies are diversifying their supplier networks to reduce their reliance on regions with higher compliance risks. By sourcing materials from countries with strong labor laws and ethical practices, businesses can ensure a smoother pathway to meeting UFLPA requirements while building a more resilient and diversified supply chain.

The lessons learned from this transformative period will likely shape the future of global supply chains, driving companies to balance compliance, ethical responsibility, and operational efficiency in a more interconnected and regulated world.



Explore UFLPA’s impact on global trade: compliance challenges, denial rates, shifting sourcing strategies, and the push for ethical transparency.

Impact of UFLPA on Global Trade: Compliance and Resilience Challenges

With Trademo Map, you can gain AI-powered supply chain visibility, helping you monitor risks like forced labor, sanctions, and export controls across your entire network.

If Donald Trump were to return to office, his trade policies might once again prioritize tariffs, protectionism, and economic nationalism. This approach could have significant ripple effects not just on the U.S. economy but also on global trade, international relationships, and economic stability worldwide.

## 1. Renewed U.S.-China Tensions

During Trump’s first term, we saw a sharp escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions, with tariffs on Chinese goods meant to tackle the U.S. trade deficit and address what Trump’s administration viewed as unfair practices by China. If those tariffs were to return, or even increase, we could see a new wave of trade restrictions from both sides. Since the U.S. and China are the world’s two largest economies, a trade war between them would likely shake up various sectors like tech and agriculture impacting supply chains and global markets far beyond just the two countries.

## 2. Economic Effects of Protectionism

Trump’s previous policies focused on bringing jobs and manufacturing back to the U.S. by imposing tariffs on imports from China, the EU, and other countries. A return to this approach might boost some domestic manufacturing, but it could also raise costs for U.S. companies that rely on imported parts and materials. The result? Higher production costs would likely be passed on to consumers in the form of increased prices—possibly contributing to inflation.

## 3. Impact on U.S. Trade Allies and Retaliatory Tariffs

Tariffs on U.S. allies, like Canada, Mexico, and the EU, previously led to retaliatory tariffs from those countries, which strained diplomatic ties. A return to these policies might push allies to retaliate again to protect their economies. This could hit a wide range of U.S. exports—from agricultural products to vehicles—and affect industries across the board. In response, allies might double down on regional trade agreements to reduce their reliance on the U.S., potentially weakening long-standing trade relationships.

## 4. Shifts in Global Supply Chains and Manufacturing

If Trump reinstates policies aimed at bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. or closer to home, it could create pressure for companies to shift production. Some U.S. firms might feel pushed to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. or near-shore to places like Mexico. While this shift could boost U.S. jobs, it would likely disrupt existing global supply chains. Many international companies may also look to diversify away from heavy reliance on the U.S., potentially reshaping manufacturing hubs, especially in regions like Southeast Asia and Latin America. However, this reconfiguration could come with cost implications, potentially affecting the price and availability of goods globally.

## 5. Tariff-Driven Inflation and Its Global Consequences

Tariffs usually mean higher import costs, which are often passed on to consumers as higher prices. If broad tariffs make a comeback, we could see rising inflation—not just in the U.S., but in other countries connected to U.S. trade. Emerging economies that are major suppliers to the U.S. could face weakened demand, which might slow down their growth. This pressure could particularly affect industries that depend heavily on global trade, like the automotive and tech sectors.

## 6. Rethinking Multilateral and Bilateral Trade Agreements

In his first term, Trump was less inclined to pursue multilateral trade agreements, like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). A return to this style of trade policy could see his administration favoring bilateral deals, focusing on U.S. advantages in one-on-one negotiations. This might lead other countries to reconsider multilateral agreements as well, prompting a shift in how global trade deals are structured and encouraging economies to explore alternative trade partnerships.

## 7. Impact on Developing Economies

Countries that rely on exports to the U.S.—especially emerging economies like Vietnam and Bangladesh—could face difficulties under renewed protectionist policies. While these nations could seek new markets, losing access to the U.S. would create real economic pressure, especially in industries like textiles, electronics, and manufacturing. To manage these challenges, such economies might work to strengthen regional trade agreements, like those within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), to lessen their dependence on the U.S. market.

## 8. Implications for the U.S. Economy

Protectionist policies could provide a boost to certain U.S. industries by reducing competition from imports, but they could also make it harder for businesses to access affordable parts, goods, and raw materials. This could increase operational costs for many companies and potentially deter investment in certain sectors. The resulting strain on industries that rely on competitive pricing could weigh on the broader U.S. economy.

## Conclusion

If Trump returns to office, it could mean a return to protectionism with a focus on making the U.S. more self-reliant. But this strategy might also lead to higher costs for American consumers, strained relationships with allies, and a shift in global trade networks as other countries work to diversify away from the U.S. The broader effects could reshape the landscape of global trade, as nations seek stability by reducing their reliance on a U.S. market that might appear less predictable.

Explore how a Trump return could impact global trade, tariffs, and economies worldwide.

Impact of a Trump Return on Global Trade and Tariff Policies

Donald Trump’s potential second term as president of the United States could be a pivotal moment for India in the global supply chain, leveraging the momentum built during his first term. With ongoing U.S.-China tensions, India is strategically positioned to capitalize on shifts in global trade patterns, particularly in critical sectors like manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and IT services.

## Economic Impacts and Financial Challenges

Under the Trump-led U.S., the economy might see rising interest rates, directly influencing India’s debt markets. Increased borrowing costs could heighten the pressure on Indian firms and investors, potentially leading to more volatile currency fluctuations. As the U.S. Federal Reserve adjusts rates, foreign capital flows into India could become more unpredictable. In 2022, India’s foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows stood at a robust $84 billion, but the volatility in U.S. financial markets could cause these numbers to fluctuate. For Indian investors, a balanced approach is key—focusing on sectors that benefit from strengthened U.S.-India defense and technology collaborations, while managing risks tied to the Indian Rupee (INR) volatility.

## Trade Growth During Trump’s First Term

During Trump’s first term, U.S.-India trade surged significantly. According to data from [Trademo Intel](https://www.trademo.com/intel), From 2017 to 2021, India’s exports to the U.S. reached $118 billion, driven by core sectors such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and electronics. In terms of shipments, India exported a total of 2.38 million shipments to the U.S., amounting to 3.57 million TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units). The total weight of these shipments stood at an impressive 83.12 billion kilograms, with the total value reaching USD 233.47 billion. 

India's pharmaceutical exports alone grew at an impressive rate of 15% annually, as U.S. businesses, seeking to reduce their reliance on China, turned to India as a reliable alternative. As the U.S. continues to seek alternatives to China’s dominance, this trend is expected to accelerate, solidifying India’s role as a critical player in the U.S. supply chain. In fact, India is now the second-largest supplier of generic medicines to the U.S., meeting approximately 40% of the country’s total demand.

## Manufacturing Boom: A Shift Away from China

Trump’s ongoing push to reduce U.S. dependency on China could lead to further investments in India’s manufacturing sector. Over $30 billion was funneled into India’s manufacturing industry during Trump’s first term, with tech giants like Apple and Samsung scaling up production within India. This trend is likely to accelerate, driven by Trump’s “America First” policies, which encourage companies to diversify their supply chains and reduce their exposure to China. In 2021, Apple’s India-based suppliers accounted for more than $7 billion in exports, a figure projected to rise in the coming years. India’s efforts to establish itself as a global manufacturing hub align with this shift, paving the way for greater foreign direct investment (FDI). As India targets manufacturing growth, particularly in electronics and consumer goods, it could attract even more FDI, further embedding India in global supply chains.

## Services Sector Expansion

India’s services sector, particularly IT and financial services, has already seen significant growth. In 2022 alone, India’s services trade with the U.S. surged by 40%, showcasing the growing role of Indian companies in providing outsourced solutions. With U.S. companies actively looking to reduce costs and diversify away from China, demand for Indian IT services is likely to increase during Trump’s second term. The outsourcing industry, which already employs over 4 million people in India, is expected to see continued expansion, particularly as U.S. firms look for more cost-effective solutions in areas such as cloud computing, cybersecurity, and software development.

## Trade Deficit Reduction and Opportunities for Indian Exports

Trump’s emphasis on reducing trade deficits could also present new opportunities for India. In 2022, the U.S. trade deficit with India stood at $38.4 billion, signaling the potential for measures to address this imbalance. Initiatives designed to bridge this gap could open doors for Indian exports in high-value sectors like electronics, machinery, and pharmaceuticals. India already enjoys a strong position in global trade, and with the U.S. aiming to reduce its deficits, sectors such as high-tech manufacturing and advanced pharmaceuticals could benefit from increased demand. In 2023, India’s exports of electronics to the U.S. were valued at $10.8 billion, and this figure is expected to rise as India strengthens its manufacturing base.

## Potential Challenges: Tariffs and Economic Nationalism

However, Trump’s economic nationalism could bring challenges. Increased trade restrictions and tariffs may pose hurdles for India’s exports and foreign investments. If Trump continues to push for tariffs on countries that run trade surpluses, India could face barriers in sectors where it competes globally, such as textiles and apparel. Additionally, as U.S. interest rates rise, borrowing costs for Indian firms could increase, potentially stifling growth in capital-intensive sectors. Indian companies will need to navigate these complexities carefully to minimize any negative impact on their profitability.

## Conclusion: India’s Growth Prospects under Trump

In summary, Donald Trump’s second term has the potential to elevate India’s position in the global supply chain. With favorable investment conditions, bolstered economic ties, and continued demand for India’s manufacturing and services, India is poised for significant growth. As U.S. companies continue to shift away from China, India’s strategic location and economic policies could lead to a more robust U.S.-India partnership. By leveraging its competitive advantages in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, and IT, India could solidify its role as a key global player, benefiting from both increased investment and expanded exports. The next few years could prove critical in shaping the future of India’s economic influence on the world stage.



Explore how Donald Trump's potential second term could boost India's role in the global supply chain, with growth in manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, IT, and services sectors.

Donald Trump’s potential second term as president of the United States could be a pivotal moment for India in the global supply chain, leveraging the momentum built during his first term. With ongoing U.S.-China tensions, India is strategically positioned to capitalize on shifts in global trade patterns, particularly in critical sectors like manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and IT services.  ### Economic Impacts and Financial Challenges  Under the Trump-led U.S., the economy might see rising interest rates, directly influencing India’s debt markets. Increased borrowing costs could heighten the pressure on Indian firms and investors, potentially leading to more volatile currency fluctuations. As the U.S. Federal Reserve adjusts rates, foreign capital flows into India could become more unpredictable. In 2022, India’s foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows stood at a robust $84 billion, but the volatility in U.S. financial markets could cause these numbers to fluctuate. For Indian investors, a balanced approach is key—focusing on sectors that benefit from strengthened U.S.-India defense and technology collaborations, while managing risks tied to the Indian Rupee (INR) volatility.  ### Trade Growth During Trump’s First Term  During Trump’s first term, U.S.-India trade surged significantly. According to data from [Trademo Intel](https://www.trademo.com/intel), From 2017 to 2021, India’s exports to the U.S. reached $118 billion, driven by core sectors such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and electronics. In terms of shipments, India exported a total of 2.38 million shipments to the U.S., amounting to 3.57 million TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units). The total weight of these shipments stood at an impressive 83.12 billion kilograms, with the total value reaching USD 233.47 billion.   India's pharmaceutical exports alone grew at an impressive rate of 15% annually, as U.S. businesses, seeking to reduce their reliance on China, turned to India as a reliable alternative. As the U.S. continues to seek alternatives to China’s dominance, this trend is expected to accelerate, solidifying India’s role as a critical player in the U.S. supply chain. In fact, India is now the second-largest supplier of generic medicines to the U.S., meeting approximately 40% of the country’s total demand.  ### Manufacturing Boom: A Shift Away from China  Trump’s ongoing push to reduce U.S. dependency on China could lead to further investments in India’s manufacturing sector. Over $30 billion was funneled into India’s manufacturing industry during Trump’s first term, with tech giants like Apple and Samsung scaling up production within India. This trend is likely to accelerate, driven by Trump’s “America First” policies, which encourage companies to diversify their supply chains and reduce their exposure to China. In 2021, Apple’s India-based suppliers accounted for more than $7 billion in exports, a figure projected to rise in the coming years. India’s efforts to establish itself as a global manufacturing hub align with this shift, paving the way for greater foreign direct investment (FDI). As India targets manufacturing growth, particularly in electronics and consumer goods, it could attract even more FDI, further embedding India in global supply chains.  ### Services Sector Expansion  India’s services sector, particularly IT and financial services, has already seen significant growth. In 2022 alone, India’s services trade with the U.S. surged by 40%, showcasing the growing role of Indian companies in providing outsourced solutions. With U.S. companies actively looking to reduce costs and diversify away from China, demand for Indian IT services is likely to increase during Trump’s second term. The outsourcing industry, which already employs over 4 million people in India, is expected to see continued expansion, particularly as U.S. firms look for more cost-effective solutions in areas such as cloud computing, cybersecurity, and software development.  ### Trade Deficit Reduction and Opportunities for Indian Exports  Trump’s emphasis on reducing trade deficits could also present new opportunities for India. In 2022, the U.S. trade deficit with India stood at $38.4 billion, signaling the potential for measures to address this imbalance. Initiatives designed to bridge this gap could open doors for Indian exports in high-value sectors like electronics, machinery, and pharmaceuticals. India already enjoys a strong position in global trade, and with the U.S. aiming to reduce its deficits, sectors such as high-tech manufacturing and advanced pharmaceuticals could benefit from increased demand. In 2023, India’s exports of electronics to the U.S. were valued at $10.8 billion, and this figure is expected to rise as India strengthens its manufacturing base.  ### Potential Challenges: Tariffs and Economic Nationalism  However, Trump’s economic nationalism could bring challenges. Increased trade restrictions and tariffs may pose hurdles for India’s exports and foreign investments. If Trump continues to push for tariffs on countries that run trade surpluses, India could face barriers in sectors where it competes globally, such as textiles and apparel. Additionally, as U.S. interest rates rise, borrowing costs for Indian firms could increase, potentially stifling growth in capital-intensive sectors. Indian companies will need to navigate these complexities carefully to minimize any negative impact on their profitability.  ### Conclusion: India’s Growth Prospects under Trump  In summary, Donald Trump’s second term has the potential to elevate India’s position in the global supply chain. With favorable investment conditions, bolstered economic ties, and continued demand for India’s manufacturing and services, India is poised for significant growth. As U.S. companies continue to shift away from China, India’s strategic location and economic policies could lead to a more robust U.S.-India partnership. By leveraging its competitive advantages in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, and IT, India could solidify its role as a key global player, benefiting from both increased investment and expanded exports. The next few years could prove critical in shaping the future of India’s economic influence on the world stage.

How Donald Trump's Presidency Could Boost India's Role in the Global Supply Chain 

On June 24, 2024, the European Union adopted its 17th sanctions package against Russia, marking another strategic move in its ongoing regulatory efforts. The objective remains focused on increasing economic pressure by limiting Russia’s access to military-related goods, energy revenues, and sanctioned technologies, and by cracking down on attempts to circumvent previous sanctions.

This latest round of sanctions introduces several new measures. Perhaps most significantly, it targets 189 additional vessels involved in transporting Russian oil through shadow fleets — unregistered or untraceable tankers used to bypass restrictions like the oil price cap. These vessels are now banned from EU ports and service networks. In total, 342 vessels have now been listed under this category, reflecting the largest G7 action on shadow fleets to date.

Additionally, 31 companies have been added to the list of those either supporting Russia’s military-industrial complex or circumventing sanctions. This includes firms based in third countries like Turkey, Vietnam, the UAE, Serbia, and Uzbekistan, showing how enforcement is expanding beyond national borders. The list of sanctioned individuals and entities has also grown, covering 75 new listings, including those involved in the looting of cultural heritage and military logistics. These measures aim to tighten restrictions on dual-use goods — especially advanced technology and chemical precursors — and further cut Russia off from materials critical to weapon production.
A notable exception has been granted for Japan’s energy security: the Sakhalin-2 oil project exemption has been extended until June 2026, allowing crude oil shipments to continue under specific conditions.

From a broader economic standpoint, the impact of previous sanctions appears to be compounding. Data shows a significant contraction in Russia’s oil revenues, down from €100 billion in 2022 to just €22 billion in 2024. Meanwhile, inflation in Russia remains high, the interest rate sits at 21%, and the National Wealth Fund's liquid assets have dropped by 65% since the start of the conflict.

## Staying Compliant Amid the EU’s 17th Sanctions Package: Why You Need Trademo Sanctions Screener

With the EU's 17th sanctions package adding 189 vessels and 31 new entities—including companies from third countries like Turkey and the UAE—it’s clear that global enforcement is tightening and circumvention is being aggressively targeted. In this fast-evolving trade environment, where even indirect links to sanctioned entities can trigger compliance risks, [Trademo Sanctions Screener](https://www.trademo.com/sanctions-screener) becomes essential. It helps businesses automatically detect high-risk vessels, companies, and individuals, especially those hidden behind shell structures or operating across borders, ensuring you stay compliant, avoid penalties, and maintain a clean supply chain in real time.

Stay compliant with the EU’s 17th sanctions on Russia using Trademo Sanctions Screener—automated detection of high-risk vessels, companies, and individuals in global trade

EU’s 17th Sanctions Package Against Russia

With Trademo Sanctions Screener, you can instantly identify and block high-risk vessels, companies, and individuals—helping your business stay compliant with evolving global sanctions and avoid costly penalties.